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Things like moving averages, technical analysis like head and shoulders, put/call volume, vix, advancing declining, breadth, distribution days (worthless IBD indicators) imho all these don’t work reliably, especially not for indexes. The only indicator that seems to be reliable is the candle size of the monthly chart of the ES/SPY/QQQ relative to earlier candles. A… Continue reading Stock Market Going Much Higher

So much doom and gloom on the blogs lately, but I can understand why as the super-competitive, winner-take-all, post-2008 economy has created a lot of losers and only a handful of winners. You even see this pervasive leftist pessimism on discussions about physics. The left says that because string theory cannot be tested, it is… Continue reading Doom and Gloom on the Blogs

He is right. Let’s stop blaming Wall St. and bankers for the overblown financial problem and instead put the blame where it is really belongs: reckless borrowers, regulation, and the doom and gloom media that tried to fan the flames of crisis to get Obama elected. Suspiciously missing from many accounts of the causes of… Continue reading Bigger is Better Theme Will Dominate in 2015

As the slowest news cycle in history continues, stocks keep raging higher. You can’t stop spendism, can’t stop technological innovation, can’t stop those web 2.0 valuations from going higher, can’t stop exports, can’t stop blowout profits & earnings, can’t stop IQ from being important, can’t stop smartism. Everything is awesome and no one outside of… Continue reading Wealth Spreaders Lose Again As Stocks Keep Going Up, GOP Victories

Any and all forms of day trading and market timing is for suckers. You cannot and can never win. Or attain what finance people call ‘positive risk adjusted returns’ Other things that don’t work: Moving averages, bands, trend following, Turtle trading, CANSIM, IBD 50 lists, watching Cramer, trying to ‘invest like Buffett‘ , newsletters, speculative… Continue reading Using a Linear Combination to Make Money with Stocks

They are both correct: Read my latest: Inequality Is a Partisan Issue the Central Bank Should Avoid http://t.co/CRKUfkFBie — Michael R. Strain (@MichaelRStrain) October 28, 2014 Big election story: voters want change direction. Leftward redistribution lurch over. Free-market capitalism, incentives, free enterprise. — Larry Kudlow (@larry_kudlow) November 5, 2014 Goldman is right: GOLDMAN SACHS: "We… Continue reading Libs Attack Success, Celebrate Failure

Karl Denninger, like Nicolas Nassim Taleb and Peter Schiff, is yet another habitually wrong doom and gloom liberal. Until now, I haven’t written anything about Denninger – one of a handful of leftist, anti-fed pundits who rose to prominence during and after the 2008 financial problem. How is he liberal you ask? It’s simple. By… Continue reading Karl Denninger is Just Another Doom and Gloom Liberal

Quasi barrier options are used to model how stock and option prices react to announced price floors and ceilings. There is surprisingly little literature about this, so I decided to take matters into my own hands and try to develop the options pricing formulas myself. Progress thus far https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Quasibarrier/sandbox#Problem_Setup Dealing with the put call parity… Continue reading Quasi Barrier Options

15 Reasons Why Americans Think We’re Still in a Recession Some of this sounds like cry me a river. We have to come to terms that in America’s post-2008 hyper-meritocracy a lot of people will be left behind, and there’s nothing we can or should do about it . Stocks will keep going up with… Continue reading Slow News Cycle

The Grey Enlightenment is a moderate, optimistic offshoot of the ‘Dark Enlightenment’. The differences are explained here. The Grey Enlightenment can be described as neoconservatism and minarchism meets social Darwinism and HBD. It appropriates ideas of supply side economics, monetarism, and free market capitalism with biological determinism and eugenics. The ‘Dark Enlightenment’, also known as… Continue reading Is the ‘Dark Enlightenment’ Already Here?