The Population Crisis

Spandrall put out this interesting post THOSE WHO SHOW UP about the risks posed by falling birthrates, and possible solutions and outcomes. That was 2013 though, and a lot has happened since. Most of it bad. Some good things too: Russia grew a spine, annexed Crimea and kicked USG out of Syria. China grew two… Continue reading The Population Crisis

Investing for the ‘Singularity’

Many pundits online, either on the dissident-left or the dissent-right, but also many centrists and moderates, too, predict increasing upheaval and societal change. They predict that Trump, the rise of populism and increasingly partisan politics, or the rejection of globalization, will change the status quo and fundamentally restructure society. Francis Fukuyama is frequently invoked, as… Continue reading Investing for the ‘Singularity’

Calculating Trump impeachment odds for prediction markets, part 2

A few days ago I discussed how Trump’s prediction market impeachment odds are too high. I still stand by my prediction that Trump will not be impeached in his first term. But there are factors working against this: The dems may decide to try to impeach Trump anyway as a sort of symbolic gesture and… Continue reading Calculating Trump impeachment odds for prediction markets, part 2

Post-opinion era

In America’s hyper-efficient, hyper-capitalistic, results-orientated economy and society that is increasingly dominated by capital and wealth, individual opinions matter less and less. Moralizing is on the way out. No one cares what you think about things. That is not to say that there isn’t a distinction between right and wrong or that morality doesn’t exist–there… Continue reading Post-opinion era

The trade deal merry-go-round

On Saturday Trump announced yet another trade deal with China (for some reason these deals always happen on Saturday). But I thought I must have been hallucinating because I was sure that Trump announced such a deal at least a few weeks ago. No, my suspicions were correct. It seems Trump announces this same sort… Continue reading The trade deal merry-go-round