The stock market and forecasting as an IQ test

As for being the greatest forecaster, for 2025 alone I correctly predicted: First: That the economic fallout from both the imposition and reversal of Trump’s tariffs would be negligible, since the U.S. economy is dominated by Big Tech and services, not tariff-sensitive durable goods. Second: That Trump would delay the Bitcoin reserve and that the… Continue reading The stock market and forecasting as an IQ test

The “Highlight Reel” Myth of Social Media

I saw this article going viral, Trapped in the hell of social comparison. The typical narrative is that users on social media–which in this context almost always refers to Instagram, TikTok, or Facebook but never Twitter/X–only show off the ‘highlight reels’ of their life, leading to envy or anxiety among users who feel inadequate by… Continue reading The “Highlight Reel” Myth of Social Media

Costco and theft

This went massively viral: 115 IQ man cannot mentally model 85 IQ high time preference criminals. Many such cases. https://t.co/YC2NJRydPp — Overeducated Gibbon (@MostlyMonkey) February 13, 2026 And: This was in response to @JamesSurowiecki, who questioned Munger’s view that requiring memberships at Costco serves as an effective deterrent against theft. Note: Charlie Munger did not… Continue reading Costco and theft

Prediction markets, and the mobilization of decentralized talent

I saw this article, “Thousands of Amateur Gamblers Are Beating Wall Street Ph.D.s” Economists have noticed that betting markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are pretty good at predicting not just political events but economic data, too. As the author notes, this was an especially poor example, given that bettors and economists were wildly off the… Continue reading Prediction markets, and the mobilization of decentralized talent

The problem with blaming ‘ultra-processed’ foods for obesity

Former NHS director Kevin Hall became a household name after in 2019 he published a groundbreaking study showing that participants on a diet of ‘ultra-processed’ foods subconsciously consume an extra 500 calories a day, compared to participants who selected from unprocessed foods. His paper garned efusive praise by the media and podcasts as being an… Continue reading The problem with blaming ‘ultra-processed’ foods for obesity

‘Wealth inflation’ has led to ‘elite overproduction’

I saw this tweet, which I will copy verbatim: Seems like a good model that every Great Man gets there through some combination of Money, Power, and Status (in the right crowd), and all 3 of these are basically impossible to get simultaneously, causing the Great Man Sadness Epidemic Elon has Money, but is constantly… Continue reading ‘Wealth inflation’ has led to ‘elite overproduction’

The strivers were right all along

There is a common narrative, typified by a recent article from UpWorthy “Gen Z is the first generation less cognitively capable than their parents,” that young people are universally coddled, incompetent, or lack conscientiousness. Maybe this is true for some, but I would submit for the top tier and the ‘aspirational class’, it’s the opposite.… Continue reading The strivers were right all along

‘America First’ is more about making America like the EU

The high-low dichotomy is seen in the MAGA vs Fuentes split. The idea is that in every political movement, there is a split between language and believes that are coded as high status, versus low status. Or how there is a class split between competing factions of the same broad ideology. Although the usual framing… Continue reading ‘America First’ is more about making America like the EU