Thinking rationally: 3 examples

Rationality is defined as “…the quality or state of being rational – that is, being based on or agreeable to reason. Rationality implies the conformity of one’s beliefs with one’s reasons to believe, and of one’s actions with one’s reasons for action…When the goal or…

3x Leveraged ETF Strategy Guide, Part 2b

In the prior section, I calculated the volatility parameters for three major market index 3x ETFs: UPRO, UDOW, and TQQQ. In this section, I need to calculate a sample market cycle for the Nasdaq 100 index in order to estimate TQQQ returns. This is harder…

3x Leveraged ETF Strategy Guide, Updated for 2020, Part 2

See part one It took longer to complete this section than expected owning to the difficulty of modeling historic stock market returns. Market returns to some degree follow a normal distribution, but ,rather, markets are more characterized by regimes. This means there are long periods…

Is a post-scarcity economy possible? It’s already happening

The srticle Education and Men without Work Just skimming the comments, there is the withholding of judgment against young, able-bodied men who, for whatever reason, choose not to work. There is no puritanical moralizing about the ‘virtues of work’, or how ‘people should not be…

Incentives matter

Incentives matter. Why is the Euro banknote the most commonly forged currency? Because it’s easy to forge? No, because the consequences are much more lenient compared to forging US bank notes. You forge US banknotes and the secret service will surround you; for euros and…

Is there a case for the humanities?

Saw this article going viral There Is No Case for the Humanities Among the tech-smart, there is a sort of cognitive dissonance of both supporting technology in so far as promoting progress and well-being (such as reducing global starvation and infant mortality), but also nostalgia…

Revising some views about IQ

I like to think that I am right most of the time, but I have to amend some of my earlier views of IQ as it pertains to success at life. In the past I put IQ above other factors, but now I think IQ…

How I Understand Stocks and Economics

The S&P 500 keeps making new highs. It can easily post another 20% gains for 2020. When I say that I am one of the greatest financial forecasters and stock pickers ever, it’s not hyperbole , but backed by data. For example, was right about…

Escalation against Iran good for Trump, stock market

War or not, there is going to be more defense build-up as a consequence of Soleimani’s assassination, which is good for defense stocks. From a 2020 strategic standpoint, assassinating Soleimani works in Trump’s favor because it boosts patriotism and nationalism among his boomer/gen-x base. On…

Getting Sunk Costs Wrong

A 2009 article from Seth Godin’s blog recently went viral, Ignore Sunk Costs. A sunk cost in the context of the sunk cost fallacy implies a certain amount of uncertainty of ever recovering the initial investment. Misspelling a sign is a mistake that needs to…