Grey Enlightenment

Elon’s political party “America party” is official: There are several possibilities: 1. Elon does not actually understand how electoral politics works. I see this as unlikely given his experience with politics under Trump. 2. Elon knows his party will split the vote, but does not care. 3. Elon hopes to cost Trump’s successor reelection, as… Continue reading Elon’s “America party” : my thoughts

June 2025 was the most eventful month in a long time, with the following big events having transpired: -Iran strikes -LA riots (remember that?) -The rise of Zohan Mamdani -Vance Boelter -Peter Thiel interview (not really newsworthy, but a major meme-worthy event online) -‘Big Beautiful Bill’ (which despite the protestations of Elon Musk, passed) -Elon-Trump… Continue reading A nation in perpetual crisis

I saw this interesting post, “Intelligence Is Not Magic, But Your Threshold For “Magic” Is Pretty Low.” None of these examples are that impressive. I would say someone who can learn advanced math is more impressive than being able to draw a skyline from memory. In the case of El Chapo running his drug business… Continue reading Persuasion techniques are overrated and survivorship bias

The ‘some guy’ phenomenon is my observation that the best people in the world at a given task or skill are unknown or random people. Instead of only famous people or credentialed experts, breakthroughs are being made by nobodies. The best trader and investor in the world is some blogger or random guys on Twitter.… Continue reading The ‘some guy’ phenomenon

As I discuss in the July 2022 post “Fixing the Expertise Misallocation Problem“, having a large social media following and a lot of media coverage or clout is a poor predictor of “useful, actionable advice” or accuracy. It’s as if those who have the most followers, visibility, or status who are the least effective at… Continue reading Why the Loudest Voices Give the Worst Advice

From Richard Hanania, Government Science and the Prestige Economy. Upon inspection, the premise of the article makes sense. There are areas of research in which the ROI is not so easy to quantify, if any at all. Or the benefits are farther down the road. I agree that knowledge is good in and of itself.… Continue reading What Richard Hanania gets Wrong about Government Research

Here are my thoughts about the Iran situation It’s debated if the attacks on Iran constitutes war. But it’s less debatable that it was an act of war or could be interpreted as a declaration of war. The Japanese attacks on Pearl Harbor, although limited and not affecting civilians, led to the U.S. involvement in… Continue reading Here are my thoughts about the Iran situation . A big day of gains

It’s another morning of the familiar sight of bombed-out buildings and smoke. My prediction is there will be no productive negotiations between Iran, Israel, and the US. The way these conflicts have typically resolved is Iran spontaneously relenting, typically for 9-12 months, until resuming. Iran initially attacked Israel in April 2024, paused until August, and… Continue reading Iran-Israel situation update: do not expect productive negotiations

I saw this post by Jeremiah Johnson, “Persistence Beats Talent: And how to think about achieving success.” It’s become fashionable in recent years to downplay the role of talent, or to deny it altogether. Concepts like “grit,” popularized by Angela Duckworth, and “growth mindset,” promoted by Carol Dweck, have gained traction as alternatives to innate… Continue reading Sorry, but Persistence does Not Beat Talent

Polymarket as of 6/17/2025 is giving a 58% chance of “US military action against Iran before July,” where this is defined as: For the purposes of this market, a “military action” will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a… Continue reading War cannot be ruled out