Grey Enlightenment

Item 1: Polymarket. I didn’t place any Polymarket or other bets on the midterms. I only stick to betting against the “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal” or “mention markets” (against Trump mentioning crypto). Those are the only things I trade, because I have an actual edge. I don’t trade things where I have… Continue reading The daily view 11/9/2026: Polymarket, Midterms, Stock Market Crash, AI & Job Loss, Jensen Huang

As I expected, Nick Fuentes is giddy that Republicans lost seats. He is happy to see Trump fail, as it raises his relative status and he can say, “I told you so.” Republicans were destroyed because Trump took us to war in Iran for Israel. A near-extinction level defeat was the only appropriate outcome and… Continue reading 2026 Midterm analysis, and the continued irrelevance of the Groypers

Reading the headlines, one thing that stands out is how everything is framed as a crisis. We have a dating crisis, a masculinity crisis, a creativity crisis in marketing, an identity crisis in Hollywood, and even a matcha crisis. It has gotten out of control. In 2026 alone, we’ve already had enough crises for a… Continue reading Why everything has become a “crisis” or “profoundly depressing”

I saw this l0m3zz article, a doorstopper at 4,100 words: My macro thoughts on where we are ahead of the midterms and the fight that is likely to begin on Wednesday morning regardless of the outcome. https://t.co/IujL2HO8BN — Jonathan Keeperman (@L0m3z) November 1, 2026 The midterms themselves are irrelevant, IMHO. The House and Senate will… Continue reading The GOP Was Never Going to Fix Affordability

It goes without saying GPT lags at writing. Even a pro subscription of Astra produces prose that is predictably AI, and easily identified by readers and software like Pangram as such. It has usual “failure modes” such as wordiness and lack of affect. Why can’t it do writing as well as it does math or… Continue reading More thoughts about AI and writing

During the Covid lockdowns, like millions of others, I watched YouTube to kill time. This included fitness content. I was also among the 40-60 percent of people who gained weight during the lockdowns. I finally lost the weight, and more, around early 2023. This got me into studying metabolism, and why some people lose weight… Continue reading The brain-body gap explanation for obesity

Taleb is back with another round of “AI cope:” Two weeks ago I wrote that predictions of widespread AI job loss often amount to a coping mechanism. His tweets can be interpreted in two ways: as what he thinks will happen, but also as what he wants to happen. A lot of people want to… Continue reading Average Is Over: Why AI Won’t Upend the Social Order

Every day brings new predictions that the so-called “AI buildout” is unsustainable, a bubble, or a crisis waiting to happen. The argument is that the US economy is being held hostage by AI spending, invoking the usual metaphors of a house of cards or a Ponzi scheme that will come crashing down. A few examples… Continue reading The AI buildout is sustainable

Despite rapid advances in math and coding, AI still struggles to produce prose that doesn’t “read” like AI. Having evaluated leading models (e.g. Opus and Astra) for writing, none of them have impressed me. A giveaway of AI-generated prose is wordiness. The prose is wordy and bad. It lacks the effortless, unforced flow of quality… Continue reading AI Keeps Getting Better. Why Is Its Writing Still So Bad?

Elizabeth Holmes’s Netflix documentary “You Can See Everything” was a huge box office success during its limited release: Still, it is Nathan Fielder’s confounding documentary on Elizabeth Holmes, “You Can See Everything,” that has captured the cultural zeitgeist. Released on 855 screens, with over 2,000 sold-out shows, the nearly three-hour documentary follows Ms. Holmes, both… Continue reading Why Defrauding the Wealthy Worked for Elizabeth Holmes