2022 Predictions

It’s time for 2022 predictions, and a recap of my 2021 predictions. Overall, my 2022 predictions and forecasts are a continuation/extension of 2021, with little changing. My 2021 forecasts were right on the nose. The only thing I missed was CPI going up a lot, and all the headlines about inflation and shortages. But it… Continue reading 2022 Predictions

2022 plans

Prediction posts and year-in-review posts are time consuming to write, so here are some plans for 2022. The prediction post will come later, but it will not be changed much from my predictions last year. 1. Publish the 3x ETF method, which blows Bitcoin away. I already began work on in this in 2020 but… Continue reading 2022 plans

More Tooleb Tweets, Again

Nasim Tooleb’s Twitter is always good for source material. Low rates produced air-like valuations, about 100 T worldwide. https://t.co/PhoWAWBTHp — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) December 27, 2021 Except that the link between interest rates and asset class appreciation is weak, or at least not strong enough to say definitely that lower rates means higher prices.… Continue reading More Tooleb Tweets, Again

The Sucker Complex

THis article went masivly viral The Sucker Complex I think part of the problem is society needs villains to unify it behind a universally disliked target, but the villains we have are not evil enough, so we end up turning on each other. The Iraq war and the War on Terror, at least for a… Continue reading The Sucker Complex

Higher ed may be broken, but the alternatives/solutions are not that great either

Saw this post going viral Burn the Universities and Salt the Earth. As the title suggests, the author has a low opinion of universities and higher-ed in general. Gen Xers and Boomers need to understand that the Millennials have a right to be angry about their student loan debt. The Millennial generation was lied to… Continue reading Higher ed may be broken, but the alternatives/solutions are not that great either

The SAT and the Meritocracy

I saw this Freddie deBoer post going viral Why the Fuck Do You Trust Harvard? It was in their best interest to use the SAT before, so they used it. Now it’s in their best interest to have even more leeway to select the bumbling doofus children of the affluent, and you’re applauding them for… Continue reading The SAT and the Meritocracy

The only hedge against inflation is quality

What happened in November and December? The Turkish lira crashed: And so did Bitcoin: This was not supposed to happen. The narrative for the past year was that Bitcoin is supposed to be a hedge against uncertainty, hyperinflation, or that foreigners would buy bitcoin to preserve value against their crumbling currencies. Indeed, the currencies are… Continue reading The only hedge against inflation is quality

Taleb, The Mob, and Covid

Saw this Tooleb tweet in which Tooleb reveals he is a fan of ex-mobster Sammy “The Bull” Gravano’s podcast: This is a Greek Tragedy.Salvatore "The Bull" Gravano had to uccidere a man who knew how to die with dignity. [0-10m]Note: Consigliere pron. "gonzyer", Cosa Nostra "Gozinaustr'" [Old S. Italian w/a "c" similar to semitic Q,… Continue reading Taleb, The Mob, and Covid