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From Scott’s blog Semaglutidonomics 140 million obese Americans x $15,000/year for obesity drugs = . . . uh oh, that can’t be right. I don’t think anything short of drastic medical intervention, such as Semaglutide, or a major disruption of society (e.g societal collapse or famine) can put a dent in the worldwide obesity/overweight epidemic.… Continue reading The obesity epidemic: genes and drugs

1. 2022 hasn’t been that great for some of my forecasts, but I got two major ones right: Bitcoin crashes (along with Ethereum, MicroStrategy and other) and Elon Musk’s brand/fame grows even more. 2020-2021 were already huge years for Elon, such as increased media coverage and support by opposing lockdowns, but his brand grew to… Continue reading 2022: Recap: Elon Musk, Twitter, FTX, and the decline of the left-wing cultural hegemony

Not a single bounce after falling $4k in a week: No bottom in sight. It’s over…the rats are jumping ship now. Just as I predicted in 2021 would happen. That’s why I’m still one of the smartest forecasters alive. It goes to show how nobodies such as myself and a few others are always right,… Continue reading The crypto crash continues

I think the epidemic of irreproducibility as it pertains to the social sciences and success stories is way bigger than imagined. The survivorship bias is huge. It’s like you’re presented with what you are told is a blueprint (e.g., ‘grit’, ‘10,000 hours’, ‘mindfulness’, ‘growth mindset’, etc.) for success, persuasiveness, or anything else socially desired. What… Continue reading Why Bad Social Science Research Endures

Last night Trump gave a major speech announcing his 2024 run. I am more convinced than ever he will win. At one point his speech was viewed by over 100,000 people concurrently across multiple YouTube channels. Biden cannot pull those kind of numbers. All Trump has to do to win is blame his opponent for… Continue reading Trump 2024

Gad Saad’s weight loss story shows why the obesity epidemic is possibly hopeless, or at least worse than I originally thought (from the Joe Rogan podcast): Although he succeeded at losing 86 pounds (at a peak and 256 pounds, and a present weight of 170 pounds), in order to achieve this he had to: 1.… Continue reading Why the obesity epidemic may not be solvable

Right again: FTX declared bankruptcy a day after I said it would. Its CEO Scam Blankman-Fried stepped down, to pursue new scams I suppose. Apparently his family also has close ties with Biden…go figure. This did not come as a surprise. Its business was unsalvageable and worthless, given that all its customers who hadn’t had… Continue reading FTX Bankruptcy

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are down 15-30% this week, vs the Nasdaq being up 3%. As far as predicting goes, this is right on the nose. You could not have asked for a more accurate forecast. The Nasdaq was up 7% today, it’s best one-day gain in over a decade, and the S&P 500 was… Continue reading Stocks Still Better Than Bitcoin, and Record-high Twitter Traffic Under Musk

As predicted two days ago, BTC is crashing, down 10% today and 10% yesterday. This is partly due to FTX exchange possibly being close to insolvency. I’m too lazy to update the above chart but it’s down another 1,000 point since I took the screenshot. Just as facts (still) don’t care about your feelings, I’m… Continue reading The Daily View: Bitcoin Crash, Financial Physics, and Interest Rates

Bitcoin is still getting ready to dump. Zooming in, you can see how the chart is choppy, which is the opposite of smooth, and preceded major price declines on multiple occasions, first at 30k, then 25k, and now at 21k: The above screenshot was made over the weekend. Sure enough, on Monday, Bitcoin is down… Continue reading Market Update: Ark and Bitcoin keep falling