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The ‘some guy’ phenomenon is my observation that the best people in the world at a given task or skill are unknown or random people. Instead of only famous people or credentialed experts, breakthroughs are being made by nobodies. The best trader and investor in the world is some blogger or random guys on Twitter.… Continue reading The ‘some guy’ phenomenon

As I discuss in the July 2022 post “Fixing the Expertise Misallocation Problem“, having a large social media following and a lot of media coverage or clout is a poor predictor of “useful, actionable advice” or accuracy. It’s as if those who have the most followers, visibility, or status who are the least effective at… Continue reading Why the Loudest Voices Give the Worst Advice

From Richard Hanania, Government Science and the Prestige Economy. Upon inspection, the premise of the article makes sense. There are areas of research in which the ROI is not so easy to quantify, if any at all. Or the benefits are farther down the road. I agree that knowledge is good in and of itself.… Continue reading What Richard Hanania gets Wrong about Government Research

Here are my thoughts about the Iran situation It’s debated if the attacks on Iran constitutes war. But it’s less debatable that it was an act of war or could be interpreted as a declaration of war. The Japanese attacks on Pearl Harbor, although limited and not affecting civilians, led to the U.S. involvement in… Continue reading Here are my thoughts about the Iran situation . A big day of gains

It’s another morning of the familiar sight of bombed-out buildings and smoke. My prediction is there will be no productive negotiations between Iran, Israel, and the US. The way these conflicts have typically resolved is Iran spontaneously relenting, typically for 9-12 months, until resuming. Iran initially attacked Israel in April 2024, paused until August, and… Continue reading Iran-Israel situation update: do not expect productive negotiations

I saw this post by Jeremiah Johnson, “Persistence Beats Talent: And how to think about achieving success.” It’s become fashionable in recent years to downplay the role of talent, or to deny it altogether. Concepts like “grit,” popularized by Angela Duckworth, and “growth mindset,” promoted by Carol Dweck, have gained traction as alternatives to innate… Continue reading Sorry, but Persistence does Not Beat Talent

Polymarket as of 6/17/2025 is giving a 58% chance of “US military action against Iran before July,” where this is defined as: For the purposes of this market, a “military action” will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a… Continue reading War cannot be ruled out

A recurring complaint I have seen by Richard Hanania and others on the center/middle-right is that the tech-right, who are otherwise intelligent, come off as dull, uniformed or intellectually-incurious about politics: The high-IQ tech right also shares the same informational environment as the dumb masses. They may be smart, but they have a deep contempt… Continue reading Why do smart people have bad political takes?

The news cycle is moving so fast. Just 2 days ago, the big story was riots and the plane crash. Now it’s Israel’s airstrikes on Iran. This is being framed as Israel thwarting Trump’s attempts at peace talks or even as the prelude to world war. But strategic airstrikes of military or nuclear targets is… Continue reading Israel strikes Iran, again

It looks like I was right again on multiple counts. First, I predicted that stocks would quickly recover from tariff-related losses and to buy the dips. Indeed, the Nasdaq has recovered all its losses and is within striking distance of a new high: Second, I was right about inflation being muted despite the hype about… Continue reading Muted Inflation , Stocks Surge, and the Rise of Elon Musk