Month: March 2026

Time for another bulletin about the stock market, Iran, and trading. So many people are spiraling online about Iran, or how trump has ‘betrayed the base’. As I said earlier, this is not that expected nor unpresented, and Trump’s approval ratings have remained stable at around 40-41%. This is low, but it was like this… Continue reading Update on Iran: Why I remain bullish on stocks and bearish on Bitcoin

In this post I explain how an eavesdropper with access to Trump’s Truth Social backend could have profited by reading the text Trump inputs before he submits it. This is all technically feasible. For context, on March 23th, 15 minutes before Trump announced a tentative ceasefire with Iran, an unknown trader made a large suspicious… Continue reading Insider trading with Truth Social and form capture

I saw this article going viral, “How Can America Be So Miserable When It’s So Rich?” (obligatory archive link) Both of those statements are true, and until recently, frankly, they stumped me. How could it possibly be rational to feel such prolonged pessimism in the face of such extraordinary economic growth? Over the last quarter-century,… Continue reading How Can America Be So Miserable When It’s So Rich?

Earlier today the U.S. proposed a peace deal, which Iran predictably rejected. My forecasts tend to be optimistic, but I predict Trump has boxed himself in and that his options are limited to the strait remaining closed for far longer than anyone possibly expects, until midterms or even 2028, or that Trump will have to… Continue reading The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, possibly until 2028

There’s a common narrative that a ground invasion of Iran would be greatly unpopular. Scott Greer tweeted that a ground invasion would have no support: A ground invasion is idiotic and has zero public support — Scott Greer 6’2” IQ 187 (@ScottMGreer) March 21, 2026 But it would have approval with most of his ‘base’,… Continue reading A ground invasion of Iran would not be as unpopular as commonly assumed

Bad political leadership has been the default mode in America for a long time. Expectations are already very low to begin with, yet those already keep being challenged. The media could promote smarter and better choices of candidates. Voters could also choose better candidates, especially during primaries where it matters most. But this does not… Continue reading Bad leadership as the default

I saw this tweet going viral about the Minnesota Starvation Experiment: The craziest study ever – The Minnesota Starvation Experiment 32 young men were put on a 40% calorie-restricted diet for 6 months, while staying physically very active They lost 25% of their body weight by the end of it Here's what this study contributed… Continue reading Why the Minnesota Starvation Experiment Doesn’t Generalize to Modern Dieting

I saw this tweet going viral. This reads as a reframing of the adage “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence,” often attributed to Carl Sagan. People mistake their own “IQ bubble” as evidence that no one is significantly smarter than they are, leading them to overestimate their own intelligence. How do you know… Continue reading To flout or flaunt IQ? Choose the second.

I saw this viral post by Matt Walsh deploring the use of AI in writing: The number of people who clearly use AI to craft basic posts on this site, and replies to posts, is pretty shocking. Once you learn how to spot AI writing, you see it absolutely everywhere on here. It’s unmistakable. The… Continue reading No, Matt Walsh, the use of AI in writing is perfectly fine

As I correctly predicted months ago, Trump’s main focus is on foreign policy, whether it’s Greenland, Venezuela, and now Iran, which similar to Covid and the impeachment hearing during his first term, will consume the rest of his second. The below tweet was posted on January 15, 2026, two months before the Iran strikes: This… Continue reading Foreign policy takes precedence over domestic issues.