A ground invasion of Iran would not be as unpopular as commonly assumed

There’s a common narrative that a ground invasion of Iran would be greatly unpopular. Scott Greer tweeted that a ground invasion would have no support:

But it would have approval with most of his ‘base’, probably 40% of the country, at least initially. The internet is not reality. Outside of “our” bubble, war is quite popular among Republicans and especially evangelicals. Trump works at the behest of the huge and influential evangelical bloc. Lose those voters and lose the election. It’s been this way for 50 years. A genuinely anti-war GOP candidate would be a nonstarter. He would struggle to gain meaningful media coverage, attract voter support, or secure funding or backing–making it impossible to win the primaries, let alone the presidency.

I was also right that Trump’s approval ratings would not fall. His approval has held at 41% three weeks since the strikes began despite the war being unpopular online:

Hence, I predict a majority of the ‘MAGA base’ would support a limited land invasion to secure the strait. Comparisons to Iraq or Afghanistan are premature; those lasted years without a clear objective and had cost thousands of U.S. lives. This has only lasted 3 weeks with minimal casualties. Trump’s best bet is to disrupt Iran’s infrastructure as much as possible in the hope Iran relents, and or that neighboring Gulf states and NATO assist in opening the strait. It’s not a good situation, but it’s premature to call operation Epic Fury a failure.

This is why Trump is going to dig into Iran, because it hasn’t hurt his approval ratings or the stock market much. Attacking Iran is red meat for his offline pro-war base of supporters, who also have very reliable turnout at the polls, even if many people online are mad at him, who are less reliable (or cannot or will not vote at all, as with the ‘Groypers’ and others). For every two people who either cannot or will not vote–or who live outside key swing states–Trump gains the support of an offline voter in a swing state who favors a more hawkish stance and is likely to vote for his successor in 2028.