The Great Disconnect

I suspect there is a sort of cognitive dissonance between what upper-income, professional-class liberals say they believe in, and what they actually believe and do. I think they know that conveying wokeness in public and on social media is just the socially accepted thing to do, not something to base one’s life around or as… Continue reading The Great Disconnect

The effects of childhood lead exposure on crime and IQ likely overstated

Came across a recent meta-study purporting that effect of lead on crime is negligibly small, effectively debunking the lead-crime hypothesis. From the abstract: Does lead pollution increase crime? We perform the first meta-analysis of the effect of lead on crime by pooling 529 estimates from 24 studies. We find evidence of publication bias across a… Continue reading The effects of childhood lead exposure on crime and IQ likely overstated

Project 100,000: An Analysis

The Gwern article McNamara’s Folly: The Denial of Individual Differences has gone viral many times. I think however he overstates his case. I, probably like many others who read his review or similar articles about Project 100,000, such as on Unz.com or on Reddit, was under the mistaken impression that McNamara enlisted literal retards (or… Continue reading Project 100,000: An Analysis

Stock Market Investing Series, Part 1: Why The Stock Market Has Gone Up So Much

This is the first post of a multi-part Q&A series about economcis and investing The bull market is long in the tooth. How long can it continue? Will future returns be poor? From Josh Brown, This is why, he writes: The S&P 500 has been compounding at 14% per year over the last ten years.… Continue reading Stock Market Investing Series, Part 1: Why The Stock Market Has Gone Up So Much

The wealth-IQ perception disconnect (why being wealthy seems so much rarer than being smart)

Most people if surveyed will vastly overestimate the rarity and difficulty of being a millionaire and underestimate the rarity of high IQ. Online, Mensa-level IQs are a dime a dozen is seems, but, astonishingly, having $1 million dollars net worth is more common by a factor by a factor of 5 than merely having an… Continue reading The wealth-IQ perception disconnect (why being wealthy seems so much rarer than being smart)

Tyler Cowen: Why Healthcare is So Expensive in America, part 1

Tyler Cowen is always good at providing contrarian takes on popular issues, for example regarding why healthcare in the US is so expensive, and or why Americans spend so much on healthcare: Tyler Cowen: Spending a lot on health care is the American way Once we focus on consumption, America’s high health-care expenditures no longer… Continue reading Tyler Cowen: Why Healthcare is So Expensive in America, part 1

Is ‘wokeism’ just a fad that will pass? Probably not

Freddie deBoer argues that because history is cyclical, that thus woke liberalism will pass eventually. Plenty of ancient Romans would have rejected the idea of an economy without mass slavery out of hand. People living under feudalism tended to believe that the system was literally ordained by God – and then the plague, the rise… Continue reading Is ‘wokeism’ just a fad that will pass? Probably not

Will Society Collapse This Century? Who knows, but probably not

I came across this story, which went viral MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We’re on Schedule. If I had a dollar for every forecast of how “X is supposed to cause Y”… “Trump winning was supposed to tank the U.S. economy,” according to Paul Krugman “Trump tariffs… Continue reading Will Society Collapse This Century? Who knows, but probably not