Month: March 2026

In part one, I discuss how selection effects can bias our perception of reality. For studies of weight gain/loss and metabolism on non-obese subjects, it may not be possible to extrapolate such results to obese people. Now I want to bring attention to the second claim, “drug dealers earn minimum wage,” popularized by the 2005… Continue reading The problem with studies and extrapolating ‘old data’ to the present

Below are three claims that are popular on social media and often treated as articles of faith, even though the data behind them may be flimsy, outdated, or biased by selection effects: 1. People’s metabolisms do not slow until the age of 60. 2. Drug dealers effectively only earn minimum wage. 3. The link between… Continue reading Debunking common assumptions, part 1

Shortly after Trump’s attacks on Iran, I predicted his favorability ratings would not fall, writing: I predict, yet again, the ‘doomers’ and ‘black-pillers’ will be wrong, just as they were wrong in June 2025 when Trump attacked Iran. Trump saw no net loss of approval despite the insistence by a vocal online minority that he… Continue reading Right again: Trump approval ratings stable after strikes

Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 24-year-old AI whiz kid and fund manager, went viral for supposedly turning $225M into $5.5B: Breaking: OpenAI fired Leopold Aschenbrenner at 22. Three years later, he manages $5.5 billion. Timeline:• Age 19: Graduates Columbia as valedictorian• Age 22: Joins OpenAI's Superalignment team• Age 22: Fired for raising AI safety concerns• Age 23:… Continue reading Leopold Aschenbrenner’s hedge fund: dispelling the hype

I saw this tweet going viral: Anyone who tries to claim that Trump and Vance ever campaigned on some sort of "anti-war" platform in 2024 was either willfully deluded, or so consumed by nonsense propaganda that they should retire permanently from any and all political analysis, forever https://t.co/Sp6WxOSUah — Michael Tracey (@mtracey) March 2, 2026… Continue reading MAGA and its discontents

The two biggest stories right now is Trump waging war on Iran (Operation Epic Fury), and the Department of War declaring Anthropic a supply chain risk. Related, OpenAI was accused of ‘front running’ the announcement to secure a Pentagon contract before that fact was made public, which has led to predictable outrage against OpenAI and… Continue reading Iran and Anthropic: My Thoughts