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So much has happened since the start of 2022 that it’s time for a mid-year prediction and recap post: 1. The Ukraine situation will suddenly and seemingly inexplicably resolve, although I don’t know what that entails or how it will transpire. But it will not be nuclear war, world war, or anything like that. It… Continue reading Mid-year forecasts/predictions

Came upon this interesting Ray Dalio video, in which he discusses the cyclical nature of empires. (starting at 26:00 it gets more interesting because he discusses how empires decline, which is relevant to the US) The video alludes to America being in the final stage of its empire, that being the decline. He does not… Continue reading Why the American Empire Will Continue: Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

For 2022 I predicted that Elon Musk’s brand/popularity would continue to grow. Although it’s hard to quantify this, with the Ukraine crisis unfolding Elon Musk yet again thrust himself into the media spotlight by having Space-X provide internet access to Ukraine via Starlink satellites. This was a huge deal, generating major media coverage everywhere. Tweets… Continue reading another correct prediction (Elon Musk)

Ark (ticker: ARKK) and Bitcoin resume their meltdown, as I predicted they would. Bitcoin has fallen over $4k since 3 days ago, from $43k to $39k. As I correctly pointed out, any rumors of Russians buying Bitcoin is unsubstantiated bullshit, and even if they are, collectively they are too poor to have any affect on… Continue reading Arkk and Bitcoin Continue to Meltdown

Mr. Butthead is hyping bitcoin again: The world finally found a practical use case for Bitcoin – helping the citizens of a country evade sanctions when that country’s ruler completely loses his mind. As the kids say, Putin decided to f*** around and find out. Well, he found out. It’s not just oligarchs and Putin… Continue reading Russian Oligarchs are Not Buying Bitcoin

For the past week, the media has been attributing a 15% price surge in Bitcoin to the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, and how Russians are turning to Bitcoin as the Rubble collapses and various sanctions are imposed: It would seem as there is some correlation between between Russia and Bitcoin, but upon closer inspection this argument… Continue reading Bitcoin’s Surge Has Nothing to do with Russia

I’m kinda burned out on Ukraine, time for a topic that is completely different. I want to describe a common mistake in reasoning, which I will call the “ignoring the middle” fallacy (not to be confused with the false dilemma). All too often, people focus on the endpoints when making decisions and ignore all the… Continue reading The Ignoring the Middle Fallacy (the importance of accumulated earnings/returns)

It looks like the first part of my prediction was wrong yesterday: Russia invaded Ukraine. This is why I don’t wager money on binary political outcomes, like on prediction markets, because I don’t have much of an edge (and the evidence suggests that neither does anyone else, which I will expand on in a forthcoming… Continue reading Russia-Ukraine Update: Wrong but Optimistic

Freddie is getting some pushback in the comments on his latest article I’ll Be Against the Next “Good War” Too, regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation. As some have noted in the comments, there is little to no indication of the US actually going to war against Russia or sending troops to defend Ukraine. Parallels to Vietnam,… Continue reading Not worried about the Russia-Ukraine situation

An increasingly connected and financialized world in which all assets are highly and increasingly correlated with each other and are easily influenced by news cycles, means that psyops will become increasingly common, sophisticated, and effective. But also, combined with a higher stakes political climate. For example, I argued a few weeks ago that the the… Continue reading PsyOp Warfare