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A common argument against the existence of conspiracy theories is that large groups of people are unable to keep secrets, so the existence of the conspiracy will inevitably leak to the public. How can thousands of people be involved in a moon landing hoax, UFOs, or 9/11, and not have at least one of them… Continue reading It is possible for large groups of people to keep secrets for a long time

Over the past week there has been considerable discussion about cancel culture and free speech. But some of the analysis possibly misdiagnoses the problem. Much of the media attention and hype focuses on academic censorship or social media censorship, but–news flash–censorship is everywhere where there are humans and a scarcity of the most valuable resource… Continue reading The Debate over Cancel Culture: Some Thoughts

The following Sam Altman tweets about college went hugely viral over the weekend: Most of all, it's clearly a bad deal for many students, or we wouldn't have the student debt crisis. Cancelling student debt is good if it's tied to fixing the problem going forward, which means not offering it, or having the colleges… Continue reading Sam Altman and College: Why the Bubble Refuses to Pop

From Cernovich People assume because I used to look like a model, and remain handsome for my age, that I can’t bring the heat. In fact physical health is a sign of high IQ. The brain is organic matter, after all. I would like to invite Noah to run hill sprints with me. ❤️❤️❤️ https://t.co/e6SLgWmfRT… Continue reading Not that smart

I waw this blog post by “Applied Divinity Studies” On Being a Loser, or Should you Start a Blog? He writes: Having said that, the problem is not even you’ll be unsuccessful and waste a bit of time. It’s that you’ll be moderately successful and waste a ton of time. The US median income is… Continue reading Losers, IQ, and the Lottery of Success

Time for a market update 1. The fed raised interest rates yesterday, as expected. I am very optimistic about the stock market going forward. I’m expecting new highs this year despite the recent selling due to Ukraine. 2. Right now, real interest rates are the lowest ever, at around negative 6-8%. This is hugely negative,… Continue reading Market update Fed edition

A trite, common but useless piece of advice is that to be successful you need to stop caring what other people think. This wrong for a few reasons: 1. People who are successful at life are able to get a lot of people to go along with them. Seldom is anyone successful and completely on… Continue reading Why you should (and need to care) what other people think of you

Another angry Arab man post: A reminder that Greenwald is a fraud.In Russia ~15,000 protesters have been detained at rallies (wsj). In the West, Zero.But @ggreenwald plays w/misunderstanding of statistical effects/scale. Below, it is private voices, NOT THE GOVERNMENT, are stupidly calling for detention. https://t.co/PZFLI7u7ac — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 15, 2022 So now… Continue reading Tooleb still shilling for the left on Ukraine-Russia

Seems like things are going in slow motion. This is like the O.J. chase equivalent of war. Putin is smart to drag this out longer than necessary. The media’s expectation is that Putin would advance fast, but prolonging the invasion and keeping causalities and damage to a minimum means the media may lose interest, and… Continue reading Calling Out Taleb and the Media for Russian Misinformation

The CPI rose 8% from a year ago, generating as expected debate about who’s to blame or what will happen. Bitcoin cultist “Pomp” tweeted about it: BREAKING: Inflation was just reported at 7.9%. This is the highest inflation in decades. — Pomp 🌪 (@APompliano) March 10, 2022 So what did Bitcoin, which for the past… Continue reading The Difficulty of Hedging Inflation