Correct Predictions

Predicting the future is notoriously hard, and that seems to have so far discouraged potential authors and readers alike. Predicting is not as hard [1] as, say, understanding theoretical physics or algebraic geometry. There is a simple heuristic I use: assume past trends will continue. Stocks will keep going up, wealth inequality will keep widening,… Continue reading Correct Predictions

The Stark Realities of Self-Publishing

A cold dose of reality on the fanciful world of self-publishing: I just self-published my first novel and am extremely disappointed Most people on here seem to be having flaming success in self-publishing field, but unfortunately I haven’t been graced with such luck – it’s been out for nearly two weeks on Amazon and I… Continue reading The Stark Realities of Self-Publishing

Deconstructing a Viral Article

In mid-March 2016, Robin Weis’ article “Crying” went massively viral, getting hundreds of up-votes and comments on HackerNews, as well as many shares elsewhere. Rather than focusing on the subject of the article itself, I’m going to focus more on the meta-narrative: why the article was so popular and what its popularity says about post-2008… Continue reading Deconstructing a Viral Article

Taleb’s CV

Part 1: Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Thin-Skin In The Game Going through Taleb’s CV, it’s not as impressive as its length suggests. Owing to his large media presence, getting published in some journals is easier, and a lot of his papers are duplicates of the Black Swan concepts. There are also a lot of opinion and… Continue reading Taleb’s CV

Jobs, Basic Income, Post Scarcity, and all that Jazz

There have been a smattering of wealth inequality/economics articles lately: THREE GREAT ARTICLES ON POVERTY, AND WHY I DISAGREE WITH ALL OF THEM Economics Has Failed America Scott goes on about the unrealistic expectations of trying to teach everyone high-IQ skills, when biology imposes barriers to such hopes: The QZ article warns that it might… Continue reading Jobs, Basic Income, Post Scarcity, and all that Jazz

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Thin-Skin In The Game

The Talebian One himself, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, whom I have written about at length on this blog, has a new book, “Skin in the Game”, which he has been promoting on Twitter. This is not a review of the book; rather, it’s a review of his broader ideas and character. The problems with Taleb are… Continue reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Thin-Skin In The Game

Theranos: The Cards Fall

With recent news of Theranos voiding test results, and other revelations, there is now a definite possibility Theranos has been mortally wounded and that my earlier optimism may have been misplaced. But now even accusations of ‘fraud’ are being thrown around, and I think that’s where the line needs to be drawn. From zr0h3dge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-18/elizabeth-holmes-admits-theranos-technolgy-fraud-restates-voids-years-test-results… Continue reading Theranos: The Cards Fall

Chinese nationals pour more than $150 billion over five years into US real estate

Chinese nationals pour more than $150 billion over five years into US real estate But during the same period, at least $127 billion went into US homes, and in the 12 months to March 2015 — the latest period for which relatively comprehensive data could be gathered — home purchases totalled $39 billion. That put… Continue reading Chinese nationals pour more than $150 billion over five years into US real estate