What Happens When Trump’s Populism Collides with Ryan’s Austerity?
Ryan rejects Trump’s agenda on trade, on immigration, and, not least, on infrastructure. In September, a reporter asked Ryan about Trump’s proposal to spend $550 billion on infrastructure (a more modest version of Bannon’s trillion-dollar fantasy).
The Republican Party is united in name only. In truth, there’s now a Bannon party and a Ryan party.
A battle over infrastructure could be the start of a big, bloody, intraparty war.
The Republican Party is united in name only. In truth, there’s now a Bannon party and a Ryan party. Infrastructure will be an early test of their relative strength—and, quite possibly, of just how complicated and ugly it’s going to get.
In an act of desperation, the media is trying to weave a narrative that there is division among the ‘right’ that threatens to tear apart the Trump presidency, when no so such evidence of division exists. The ‘fake news’ media has to make stuff up, because facts alone will not suffice.
This blog keeps being right over and over, for example in predicting how the purported division among the GOP over Trump during the election and primaries was contrived/manufactured and that the GOP was (and is) solidly behind Trump. [1]
Will Trump backpedal on some stuff? Probably. His ambitions are high, and it’s unlikely he will accomplish all of his campaign objectives (border and immigration control, defense spending, tax cuts, repeal of Obamacare, infrastructure stimulus, and trade deal renegotiation) during his first term.
The alarmist New Republic article makes it seem like the fate of Trump’s presidency hinges on the stimulus plan, when it’s just one objective out of many. The House may block the stimulus, but without hesitation pass the tax cuts, defense spending, and Obamacare repeal. Accomplishing three out of five of the objectives would be a huge success for Trump’s first term.
Trump knows what he’s doing. He came this far and won’t blow it. Trump will prove to be one of the smartest, hardest-working presidents, as shown by his command of the issues during the debates and determination and perseverance during the campaign.
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It’s almost as if Bannon read A ROAD MAP FOR 2016: RESTORING OPTIMISM TO THE GOP, which I wrote in 2013 and advocates taking advantage of America’s reserve currency status and cheap borrowing to fund tax cuts and other pro-growth policy instead of getting bogged down worrying about the debt. I myself thought it was far-fetched, but right-wing Keynesianism may be a success (or at least more successful than left-wing Keynesianism, which never works).
If I were advising Trump I would tell him to actually postpone the infrastructure, tax cuts, and defense spending, because the economy doesn’t need stimulus, and increasing the national debt may backfire during re-election if the economy doesn’t grow fast enough. Save the stimulus as a back-up plan should the economy show signs of recession, but right now the economy doesn’t need it. Given how Bush and Obama boosted spending so much, I imagine some Trump supporters are ambivalent about more stimulus. Instead, Trump should focus on repealing Obamacare, which will reduce spending and is an objective both his voters and House Republicans can easily get behind.