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I came across this My Final Case Against Superforecasting Although the post is a year old and a lot has transpired regarding Covid since, it’s still interesting and relevant. The author argues that superforecasters overlook the ‘keys’ that are in the dark, only focusing on easy predictions (the keys under the streetlight): All of this… Continue reading Covid, Forecasting, and the Problem with the Precautionary Principle

Earlier I reported that Michael Saylor had purchased 11,000 BTC at 36,000. He hadn’t. Rather he raised cash and only recently purchased 13,000 more Bitcoin. So his latest update: MicroStrategy has purchased an additional 13,005 bitcoins for ~$489 million in cash at an average price of ~$37,617 per bitcoin. As of 6/21/21 we #hodl ~105,085… Continue reading Doubling Down on Stupidity

On quora there are tons of questions about what it means to be smart, to have a high IQ, etc. To try to answer this, I think it means you you arrive at the correct answer with less time and less effort than most people. You can look at the information provided and then just… Continue reading Thoughts about IQ

The Covid BioWeapon: Made in the USA, Aimed at China Ron Runz, founder of Unz.com, for the past year has been pushing a theory that Covid originated from an American lab, and that US military officials somehow deliberately infected China and the Iran leadership with Covid, and then the virus got out of control and… Continue reading Covid: Made in the USA? (Ron Unz Article)

For months Vox Day and the alternative media have been pushing a narrative that Biden and Putin hate each other, which I had suspected to be BS. But it was not just the alternative media that got this wrong, but so did purportedly ‘reputable’ sources, such as Foreign Affairs, which in early April 2021 predicted… Continue reading So Much for That, Part 4, Biden vs. Putin

Winners and Losers: The Global Economy After COVID The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed the world economy in ways that will be debated by pundits and future historians for decades to come. Yet, as hard as it is to predict a disrupted future accurately, the pandemic (not to mention its probable successors) looks likely to produce… Continue reading Post-Covid: More of the Same

From Vox Day Ben Shapiro hates middle class America and the related tweet If Blackrock is willing to take the risk of leveraging up to buy single-family housing at above-market prices, that their prerogative. So long as they own the downside risk. No bailouts. Ever. — Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) June 10, 2021 The homes are… Continue reading The popularity of Ben Shapiro and others

Over the past few months on communities such as Reddit and Hacker News I have seen investors express concern about the implications of falling US population growth as it pertains to future stock market returns, in that declining or sluggish US population growth will hurt returns going forward. I think such fears are unsupported by… Continue reading Why Declining Population Growth and Sluggish GDP Growth are Not a Concern for Investors

From Vox Day The Alpha Weakness I would seem as if this an indirect dig at Trump. Vox has repeatedly called Trump an alpha. Vox came to the same realization as I did, which is that Trump was not that effective of a leader, but the difference is he is only coming to that realization… Continue reading The Alpha Weakness

I was going to do a politics or finance post but making fun of BItcoin is more fun. Today’s Bitcoin Idiots: Mike Saylor, not to be confused for the other Sailer (Steve), who is not an idiot. Mr. Saylor sunk another $400 million into Bitcoin with borrowed money: MicroStrategy Announces Proposed Private Offering of $400… Continue reading Today’s Bitcoin Idiots