Category: Uncategorized

Inspired by the above exchange between Scott Alexander and a commenter on the former’s blog, a common argument I see is that Americans are overworked and have little vacation time compared to Europeans. Indeed, Americans have fewer holidays compared to Europeans and take fewer days off: As the narrative goes, this makes Americans more depressed… Continue reading Americans have less vacation time, but so what

It’s nice to see social media bringing out the best in people. There has been a lot of talk in recent weeks about prediction markets–either prediction markets inflating the suggested odds of extremely improbable candidates–or whales purportedly manipulating certain markets, such as contracts tied to Trump winning. Or the apparent disconnect between prediction market prices… Continue reading Prediction market prices are more useful than polls, but not quite probabilities either

It seemed like $70k Bitcoin was just around the corner Sunday night following renewed enthusiasm after a Trump campaign event at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s, only for the rug to be pulled out again. The magic $68k chart, which I posted months ago, is still intact. Sub $20k is still happening, likely next year (although I… Continue reading Bitcoin suddenly falls after attempt at $70k: it still sucks

From Yahoo (republished from Bloomberg), US Interest Burden Hits 28-Year High, Escalating Political Risk: The Treasury spent $882 billion on net interest payments in the fiscal year through September — an average of roughly $2.4 billion a day, according to data the department released Friday. The cost was the equivalent of 3.06% as a share… Continue reading The National Debt is Not a Big Deal For Investors

Uber stock has surged since its IPO, far outpacing the S&P 500 in that same time period: So much for all those predictions from 2010-2020 of it running out of money. I have never seen a company as widely expected to fail or maligned by the media as Uber: Yes, Uber has lost a lot… Continue reading Uber stock surge proving how useless the financial media are

1. Although optimistic about the economy, I am looking at the 2024 election with dread. Either outcome means a more divided nation and an intensification of the culture wars, and god help us if the results are too close to call. An election in which the results are contested is the worst possible outcome. It… Continue reading The daily view 10/17/2024: Election, Billionaires, Elites, Parenting, Life Expectancy, Crime…

Regarding Trump Media, I was right in predicting it would not fail, as also widely predicted by the media. DJT stock, after having bottomed at $13, has recovered significantly: [It has gained even more since the above screenshot was taken. I wrote this post yesterday.] The fact DJT has done so well recently and has… Continue reading Why Trump Media stock (DJT) stock is surging: free advertising

I saw this going viral Anthropic CEO goes full techno-optimist in 15,000-word paean to AI. The author’s predictions are way too optimistic. None of those things he predicts are going to happen, or at least not due to AI or in our lifetimes. It’s not at all going to cure cancer or cure aging, or… Continue reading AI: still stuck in the textbox

I saw this going viral: Very few Americans realize that, if Trump is NOT elected, this will be the last election. Far from being a threat to democracy, he is the only way to save it! Let me explain: if even 1 in 20 illegals become citizens per year, something that the Democrats are expediting… Continue reading Kamala winning does not mean the end of America or ‘last election’

The only winners in the 2024 election are social networks and the stock market. Meta and YouTube benefit from huge campaign advertising and more traffic due to an increasingly divided nation and election-related news. The other winner is the stock market, due to stimulus spending and tax cuts; both candidates promise boatloads of spending. Trump… Continue reading The only winners of the 2024 election: stocks and social networks