The big story this weekend are the Trump tariffs. As to be expected the sensationist media is predicting the typical doom and gloom. Similar to Trump’s first tariffs during 2017, I am predicting these latest tariffs will only have a limited negative effect on the stock market, the overall US economy, or on inflation. Any dip will be a buying opportunity.
The tariffs cannot be both bad for the US economy and inflationary. Think about it: if tariffs hurt consumer spending and economic growth, which the media is widely predicting, then this must be deflationary (yet the media is predicting high inflation). The inflation of 2022-2023 was against a backdrop of strong economic growth. So the causality was inflation following from the growth. Also, the tariffs are not going to put much of a dent in America’s liabilities. America spends too much on domestic programs, not that it imports too much
As mentioned yesterday, I am already prepared having shorted Bitcoin on Friday at $105k last week, and am still short and up a lot on that position as of writing this, with Bitcoin trading at $97k. 2025, like 2024, is off to a great start for my accounts, with huge gains from Polymarket bets, shorting Bitcoin, and Meta stock gains. As 2022 showed, Bitcoin has proven to be a useless hedge against crisis, and Trump has no intent on delivering on the reserve either, having taken his crypto donors for a ride.
Unlike 2022, I will not be caught off guard; I can see ahead and know what will happen. Shorting Bitcoin is a great hedge against tariffs or Ai fears, while still reaping the upside from the leveraged tech positions like Meta and Tesla. And then the Polymarket bets is icing on the cake, boosting returns even more and another hedge. I am able to profit from both Trump backtracking on his Bitcoin promise and also from Bitcoin falling from the tariffs, as further evidence of being among the greatest traders and forecasters out there.
So in regard to the tariffs, we only have to look at the media’s track record, which speaks for itself.
Here is the media in 2016:
And now:
What did the stock market do during Trump’s first term? It surged, only falling a lot in 2020 due to Covid, not anything directly attributable to Trump’s economic policy. Anyone who sold in early 2017 for fear of tariffs would have missed out on the 100%+ gains that followed from 2017-2021:
A good heuristic is the media is almost always wrong. They were wrong in predicting or certainty that Trump would create a Bitcoin reserve, and now are wrong about overstating the economic risks or fallout of the tariffs. Always doing the opposite of the media is a profitable strategy.