Category: Uncategorized

We’re in a paradoxical situation where although America nominally is wealthier than ever, at the same time, it’s become too hard to succeed for the median person, whether in academia, business, or pretty much anything else in life. This contradiction can be explained by an increasingly skewed distribution of returns, where extreme outliers capture enormous… Continue reading Why Everyone Feels Like They’re Losing

Deal or no deal? White House says Iran deal could take days. It was predictable how the headlines changed from “a deal is certain” 14 hours ago, to now “maybe?” It’s the same pattern we’ve seen for the past 3 months. There is not going to be any sort of “deal” because neither side can… Continue reading Profiting from Iran and Polymarket

Everyday we’re bombarded with information, such as studies and advice. So what can be trusted or dismissed? Most studies are bullshit–just Google “replication crisis”. But a possible exception is when the science agrees with empirical evidence, such as on Reddit and other social media. Reddit IS the science. There is no need for studies. Anecdotal… Continue reading Why anecdotal evidence is better than studies

Interesting rage bait, “if you can’t get a job today, it’s your fault:” the brand of a college was never about the curriculum. nobody hired a Penn graduate over a Penn State graduate because Penn taught macroeconomics better. they hired the Penn graduate because the admissions filter at Penn was strong. you went there, so… Continue reading AI will not hurt the signaling value of elite colleges

Here we go again with the always-wrong AI-job-loss predictions: NEW: Microsoft AI chief predicts AI will automate most white-collar work within 18 months. — Polymarket (@Polymarket) May 17, 2026 People have made this prediction every month, at least since 2023. Three years later, despite record progress in AI, nothing has changed. But people keep predicting… Continue reading AI job loss predictions keep being wrong

The past week has seen more articles than usual about the effects of AI on higher education and the job market. The tone tends to be negative, but also contradictory, with some articles expressing optimism, but the general tone tends to be pessimistic. For example, from Fortune, “Employers are increasingly turning to degree and GPA’… Continue reading AI Didn’t Break College. It Exposed What College Already Was

I saw this post by Jake Seliger, which went viral, “I am dying of squamous cell carcinoma, and the treatments that might save me are just out of reach.” He describes what Alex Tabarrok in a 2015 post calls an “invisible graveyard,” due to the FDA being too cautious on potentially curative cancer treatments, “Alex… Continue reading Debunking the claim that the “FDA is holding back cancer cures”

This is a great interview with Tom Costello, a veteran Quant PM formerly of Tudor Investment Corp and Moore Capital: I like how he doesn’t downplay his intelligence with this annoying false modesty you often see online. At the 59:00 mark he talks about being the smartest in school and college, but only being in… Continue reading The importance of having an information advantage at trading

It’s not your imagination–everything has become a crisis. In 2026 alone, math education, ‘AI memorization‘ and even condominiums are now a crisis. The word crisis used to be reserved for major events such as the September 11 attacks or the 2008 Great Recession, but has now been expanded to include pretty much everything. Around 2020,… Continue reading How the Mainstream Media Came to Sound like Zero Hedge/Info Wars

In my post from a few day ago “Iran, oil, and stocks: taking a victory lap,” I didn’t mention Bitcoin. It would appear I was wrong about so far about Bitcoin diverging from stocks. Bitcoin has done well, at $79,000 as of writing this, an increase of 21% since early April, tracking the stock market… Continue reading Shorting BTC to hedge the stock market, part 2 , Free hedging with STRC