– Fogel, who is in his 60s, had around 17g (0.6oz) of cannabis in his luggage when he was caught on 15 August 2021 at Sheremetyevo airport, he told lawyers. 0 attention to this story tho. https://t.co/wDDK6dAOGP — Cernovich (@Cernovich) August 5, 2022 Because no one in the US has ever been sentenced for decades… Continue reading Russia’s Drug Laws are Comparable to the US
Category: Uncategorized
The Case Against Collapse
Credible sources are still entertaining the possibility of societal or economic collapse of the US. People are obsessed with this topic. Maybe they see collapse as an opportunity to break from the monotony of consumer capitalism, or they are bored, or something to do with ‘bullshit jobs’, which seems to come up in every discussion… Continue reading The Case Against Collapse
Superforecasting: How it’s done
Over the past 10 or so years there has been a lot of hype over superforecasting and superforecasters. Does such skill exist? I emphatically think so. From fs.blog Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters For instance, don’t ask, “Who will win the world series in 2050?” That’s impossible to forecast and unknowable. The question becomes more… Continue reading Superforecasting: How it’s done
Lotteries and the Age of Extreme Payouts
I saw this Mega Millions ticket wins $1.34B lottery jackpot Why it matters: The jackpot rolled 29 times since April and if no one won Friday’s drawing lottery officials said the prize had the potential to grow to $1.7 billion for Tuesday’s drawing, which would have been the nation’s largest lottery prize. These lotteries have… Continue reading Lotteries and the Age of Extreme Payouts
Mid-Year Predictions Scorecard
It’s time to review the scorecard. I looks like I was correct on everything, except for Facebook, which is still below $160/share on weak earnings. Correct: Amazon stock surged 10% on earnings, on its way to being worth $10 trillion soon. Bezos will be the world’s second trillionaire after Musk, and Amazon stock will go… Continue reading Mid-Year Predictions Scorecard
The Future of the GOP is Snoop Dogg
It’s interesting how conservatism has evolved in America in recent decades. Starting in the early eighties with Reagan and all the way up until around 2008-2012–ending with the Global Financial Crisis and its aftermath, and the forgettable campaigns of Romney and McCain–the Republican party was heavily influenced by the the so-called Chicago School, composed of… Continue reading The Future of the GOP is Snoop Dogg
Another pop psychology casualty: nudging
Apparently ‘nudging’, one of the cornerstone findings of pop psychology that has borne many of books and TED talks, may be beset by publication bias: The death knell for nudging? “When this publication bias is appropriately corrected for, no evidence for the effectiveness of nudges remain.”https://t.co/LzHNvG7h6m pic.twitter.com/LVVXYSupVL — John B. Holbein (@JohnHolbein1) July 24, 2022… Continue reading Another pop psychology casualty: nudging
The college experience, how bad is it?
I saw this thread on Reddit What do you think the hardest major is? A few observations: 1. I think this calls into question the popular notion that college is dumbed-down or coddling students, contrary to Jonathan Haidt, Bari Weiss and others that college is like daycare. I am pretty sure organic chemistry is harder… Continue reading The college experience, how bad is it?
Elon Musk’s Bitcoin Betrayal
I forgot to include this my post yesterday, but Elon Musk dumped his Bitcoin holdings: Elon Musk’s Tesla sells most of its Bitcoin holdings (Technically, Tesla sold it, not Elon, but he authorized it.) This comes after he promised not to sell: And claiming Tesla has ‘diamond hands’, meaning not selling: Billionaires will only look… Continue reading Elon Musk’s Bitcoin Betrayal
The Daily View 7/22/2022: Coinbase Insider Trading and Tesla
This is going viral today: Three Charged In First Ever Cryptocurrency Insider Trading Tipping Scheme This comes a day after I published my post yesterday about financial crime. The timing could not have been better. From the indictment: On at least 14 occasions beginning at least in June 2021 and continuing through April 2022, ISHAN… Continue reading The Daily View 7/22/2022: Coinbase Insider Trading and Tesla