Today’s big story: “U.S. soldier involved in Maduro raid charged with betting on the operation:”
The soldier was identified as Gannon Ken Van Dyke in a news release announcing the indictment.
Van Dyke “bet a total of approximately $33,034” on the Maduro operation on the prediction market platform Polymarket, federal authorities said. He ultimately made more than $409,000 as a result of the bets placed on the U.S. operation, an unsealed indictment alleges.
Authorities said he “participated in the planning and execution of the U.S. military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro.”
“In total, Van Dyke made approximately 13 bets from Dec. 27, 2025, through the evening of Jan. 26,” the Justice Department said.
This is a miscarriage of justice if I ever saw one. A pardon ought to be in order. There is so much wrong with this. For one, there is ample evidence of rampant insider trading around Trump’s announcements, and I explain how it can be done. His arrest comes at a time when Polymarket and the administration are facing increased scrutiny for alleged insider trading, making him appear as a needed fall guy.
It also goes to show how elites get preferential treatment, and how America’s distrust of institutions and leaders is not misplaced or unfounded. His mistake was thinking he was part of the club and that the rules of ordinary people does not apply to him; clearly, he had misunderstood.
Deferring to the literature, his case appears to be especially punitive. For example, insider trading is typically handled civilly, with the accused paying a fine and admitting no wrongdoing to avoid prosecution. Below are six cases that were settled civilly:
1. Michael E. Mueller (2022)
Traded on material nonpublic information related to a corporate acquisition; resolved via SEC civil settlement with disgorgement and penalty.
SEC Release – Mueller
2. SEC v. Di Nardo (2011)
Suspicious pre-announcement options trading; settled civilly with disgorgement and additional monetary penalty.
Case summary – Di Nardo
3. Pequot Capital / Arthur Samberg (2010)
Insider trading involving Microsoft securities; resolved through a large civil settlement (~$28M).
SEC Insider Trading Case List (Pequot)
4. Thomas Flanagan (Deloitte) (2010)
Used confidential audit information to trade; settled with SEC, paying over $1.1M combined penalties.
SEC Insider Trading Case List (Flanagan)
5. Andy Bechtolsheim (2024)
Traded on nonpublic information regarding a tech acquisition; settled SEC civil charges with financial penalties and restrictions.
Investopedia summary
6. Ishan Wahi / Coinbase Case (2023)
Used advance knowledge of crypto listings; SEC civil charges settled with disgorgement and penalties (alongside parallel criminal case).
Axios summary
As an especially egregious case, hedge fund manager Steven A. Cohen paid over $1.8 billion in penalties to settle with the SEC in 2016 for “failing to supervise employees,” and avoiding prosecution.
When cases are referred for prosecution, there are few add-on charges. For example, in a 2025 case, the defendants were convicted on charges of conspiracy, securities fraud , and insider trading:
Haghighat was convicted of one count of securities fraud, 16 counts of insider trading, and two counts of conspiracy. Pearl was convicted of one count of securities fraud, one count of insider trading, and one count of conspiracy. Sabzevari was convicted of one count of securities fraud and seven counts of insider trading. Roberge was convicted of one count of securities fraud and seven counts of insider trading.
Van Dyke, by comparison, was also charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction. This was in addition to “unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information.” The latter makes sense in the context of the case, in which he acted on confidential government information, but then why add the other charges? Wire fraud alone carries up to 20 years.
Typically, insider traders are not charged with wire fraud or an “unlawful monetary transaction” (whatever that is supposed to mean). Wire fraud is sometimes used as a workaround for cases where commodities laws may not apply, such as NFTs or crypto, but then why charge him with both “commodities fraud” and “wire fraud” instead of only one? It seems they really wanted to make an example out of him and threw every possible charge at him, even when they seemingly contradicted each other or without precedent for what he is being accused of.
For good measure, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates Polymarket, hit him with civil charges, seeking “restitution, disgorgement, civil monetary penalties, trading and registration bans, and a permanent injunction against further violations of the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulations.” This is the least of his problems. Given how much prison time he is presumably facing, I don’t think he will be using Polymarket anytime soon.
Also, the feds wasted no time, going strait to the arrest just 3 months after the crime was committed, which is unprecedently short for white-collar crimes, in which gathering evidence and building cases can easily take years. Polymarket boasted on Twitter: “Insider trading has no place on Polymarket,” the company added in a post on X. “Today’s arrest is proof the system works.” It works if they want to make an example out of you, as they clearly did with him.
Again, the lesson is, stay in line and know your place. This explains why Donald Trump faced numerous indictments and cases without anything of consequence happening to him, while many of those around him ended up in jail or disgraced. Of course, Van Dyke bears responsibility for making the trades, but it still highlights the importance of understanding one’s place in the hierarchy–and the serious consequences of assuming that proximity to power means genuine membership within it.