Time for another bulletin or transaction. Tweets from 1-2 weeks ago that expressed skepticism about Trump or falling support, are already aging badly, as the stock market makes new highs and Iran is already in the rearview mirror:
You can probably put this in this same category as his promise to end Iranian civilization. More bluster without actually going forward with it. A blockade of a blockade won't really work anyway https://t.co/x8dR0ItTxH
— Scott Greer 6’2” IQ 187 (@ScottMGreer) April 12, 2026
As I mentioned in my especially prescient post from last week “Trump: diplomacy by delay,” it’s the same pattern as the tariffs in March-April 2025 or Covid in early 2020: there is a very narrow window where panic grips the stock market and the public, and without warning, sentiment suddenly changes from fear to greed.
Iran has become background noise. As I said last week, the stock market has decided for all practical purposes the issue no longer matters. The public soon follows. What is the status of the strait or blockade now? Or the 2 week ceasefire agreement, now in its second week? These dates and deadlines all background noise at this point, like the tariffs in 2025 after the worst was over. The stock market has moved on, with big tech leading as usual—the same as 2025.
Even if you think Trump is wrong or losing the plot, when there is money on the line, never bet against Trump or the stock market (unless it is about the crypto reserve, in which “no reserve” is a foregone conclusion). Trump always pulls through one way or another and defies his doubters. Even when I am wrong, I never lose money, because I never bet against America. When money is on the line I have to get it right.
But Trump’s approval ratings have taken a small hit, down around 2 percent since the start of the war, so I was somewhat wrong about that, but it’s not that big of a decline–hardly a mass repudiation or “divorce” as many were predicting a month ago. The large majority of Trump’s supporters have stuck with him, as I expected.
Related to Scott’s tweet above and his most recent article “The MAGA Divorce,” he writes:
There is a common argument that the influencers who’ve turned on Trump have no influence at all. They’re irrelevant and Trump can ignore them without consequence. That’s not really true. Their audience and sway over the MAGA base are often exaggerated, but they do still have influence. They are listened to by hundreds of thousands of people and they’re particularly relevant to the “elite” class of conservative intellectuals, operators, and staffers in the administration. The views of Republicans under 35 owe more to the influencers than they do to Fox News. They are relevant–to a certain degree.
The opinions of the “anti-war right” are still irrelevant in terms of polling and policy despite being very vocal online. Just as I was right in late 2024 and early 2025 about no Bitcoin reserve and Trump abandoning his crypto donors, I was right 5 months ago about Nick Fuentes and others having no influence on the GOP, Trump or anything or anyone of significance or consequence. Instead, Trump has only ramped up foreign interventionism, with domestic issues on the backburner: right again.
It remains to be seen if this divorce will hurt in 2028 or the midterms. I predict it won’t, as the supposed divorce long predates the war or even his second term. There has always been a large faction on the Right of people who never supported Trump or are ambivalent towards him, and not just limited to never-Trumpers. The war is not going to affect midterms either. Trump’s approval ratings were already low before he attacked Iran, at around 41 percent, so it’s hard to make the logical leap that the war has hurt Trump’s image, when his approval was already low.
In explaining Trump’s low approval ratings, it goes without saying the media can barely contain its outrage or loathing of Trump. Of course, anything he does will by default be cast in a negative light. Coverage of the tariffs, Maduro, Iran etc. has been unanimously negative. This has had a cumulative effect of lowering the public’s opinion of him, at least at the margins among undecided voters and independents. Also, imho, the tariffs were a strategic mistake, generating overwhelmingly negative media coverage with no obvious or tangible benefit to voters. No one is like, “Thanks to the tariffs I have more disposable income and my living standards are higher.”
No in charge one cares about affordably, although I also don’t think this is to blame for Trump’s low approval rating. If you got big medical bills or other expenses, “tough shit,” as it’s said. Nothing is going to get cheaper, even with AI, so the only way to keep up is to invest in assets–be it stocks or real estate (but avoid crypto). The implicit messaging or “arc” of by policy makers is towards keeping assets inflated. There is a lot at stake in keeping homes and stock prices inflated, but also the S&P 500 and Nasdaq companies are generating record earnings.
With “AGI” potentially unlocking an untold boom in economic growth and earnings the likes of which the world has never seen, if you’re not invested in tech stocks at this point, you’re leaving money on the table. Imagine real GDP growing at 30-100% a year–of course, stocks are going to go vertical.