The big story is Trump threatening to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks collapse. Yet again, when I claim to be the best macro forecaster, trader, and money manager, it’s all backed by quantifiable evidence and results. I was short Bitcoin, as per my usual method, which predicably collapsed after the story broke:
BITCOIN $BTC dropped to $70K after the Trump / Hormuz news
everything changed in minutes. that’s the market we’re in…
we’re really tired of winning pic.twitter.com/xQBZQRTBhR
— Mookie (@MookieNFT) April 12, 2026
Recall, shorting Bitcoin to hedge tech stocks in case of weekend bad news–be it tariffs, China, or the Middle East–was originally my idea, back in mid-2025. No one else had thought of doing this, or at least had not made it public. The widespread assumption was that Bitcoin was too risky to short. I showed that shorting Bitcoin could be profitable and hedge headline/geopolitical risk.
Shorting Bitcoin is better than prediction markets because there is less risk of the contract being voided due to the rules arbitrarily being changed, and significantly more liquidity. But prediction markets are better for more specific things, where the odds are way overpriced, such as betting against the eventually of a Bitcoin reserve or betting against Trump saying “Bitcoin” in any of his speeches (so-called “mention markets”).
This also means I don’t need to be right about what exactly happens in Iran, and who is right about everything? I make money no matter what, which matters more. Given the long-term tendency of Bitcoin to underperform tech stocks, but also using Bitcoin as a hedge, I make money with good Iran news or bad. Such asymmetry is why shorting Bitcoin has worked so well: QQQ will only be down maybe 1/2 percent on the blockade news, whereas Bitcoin will be down 3-5%. Yet you never see the converse when there is good news.
I was also right about there being no Bitcoin reserve. Again, the widespread assumption in 2024 and early 2025 was that Trump would bend over backwards for crypto donors, who had touted Trump as a savior to their industry. But it was not requited, and subsequently crypto has been the worst performing asset since Trump’s inauguration. All his donors have to show for their support are scam coins that presumably fleeced his followers to untold billions.
Every single crypto IPO or stock, such as MicroStrategy, American Bitcoin, Marathon, Gemini, Coinbase etc.–has been a disaster, with share prices down between 30-70% or more over the past year. Trump’s various coins ($TRUMP and $WLFI) have lost between 75-90% from their peak.
If history is any guide, Trump will “TACO” his way out of this, and buying the dip in tech stocks is a good idea.