As I correctly predicted months ago, Trump’s main focus is on foreign policy, whether it’s Greenland, Venezuela, and now Iran, which similar to Covid and the impeachment hearing during his first term, will consume the rest of his second. The below tweet was posted on January 15, 2026, two months before the Iran strikes:
This is exactly as I predicted a month ago: Domestic/household issues taking a backseat to foreign policy.
No one in charge cares about affordability. Buy tech stocks to hedge inflation + AGI/singularity. Earn more money.
— Grey Enlightenment (@2025Blog) January 15, 2026
In terms of foreign policy, not much has changed compared to past Republican presidents. As I wrote a week ago, the notion of Trump being a uniquely anti-war Republican was unfounded and wishful thinking.
"It's dying"…people been saying this since the George Bush years. Foreign and econ policy hasn't changed much over the past 40 years since the groundwork was laid by Reagan.
— Grey Enlightenment (@2025Blog) November 11, 2025
Those hoping for domestic policy reforms such as tackling the ‘affordability crisis’ such as spiraling healthcare costs and insurance premiums, will predictably be left empty-handed again. The ‘black pilling’ has resumed:
It’s enraging. Health insurance is $3,500 a month for a family of 5. https://t.co/PTHW1sEl0P
— Cernovich (@Cernovich) March 11, 2026
and he observed how domestic issues have been pushed to the periphery:
The war is fucking us all over on domestic issues. Was foolish timing. Waiting to the midterms, to see if you lose the House, or at least leverage something from the Senate first. MAGA got nothing. Jeremy Carl, who Charlie Kirk wanted in, got blocked. Fuck this nonsense.
— Cernovich (@Cernovich) March 13, 2026
All of this was predicted on the blog. Surging oil and gasoline prices as a consequence of Iran will further squeeze household budgets and businesses, but CPI will not go up that much though.
To recap, I was the only one who correctly predicted all of the following about Trump:
- The economic impact of the 2025 tariffs would be far smaller than many “experts” predicted.
- The Iran war would cause little to no drop in Trump’s approval ratings.
- There would be no U.S. Bitcoin reserve.
Sure enough, a full 2 weeks after the strikes began, Trump’s approval ratings are unchanged from a month ago, as if nothing happened:
The main selling point of the Trump is that the Democrats are worse, which isn’t a particularly high bar. Much of his power is in the form of pardons, judicial appointments, executive orders, and foreign policy, and less so legislatively, which is where domestic policy is concerned. Whoever controls the courts, controls the county. I’ve argued that rather than three branches, there is effectively only the executive and judicial branch, the latter which limits the power of the former. The do-nothing Congress only intervenes during crisis (e.g. 2008 bank bailouts), to raise the debt ceiling, or for legislation that isn’t consequential.
Like his first term, a lot of people wish Trump would do more about domestic policy, but if history is any guide, that’s not going to happen. Older Republican voters, who have the highest voter turnout, along with GOP ‘power brokers’ and mainstream media, overwhelmingly support the war. Their domestic policy concerns are already covered by Social Security and Medicare, with homes already paid for. They don’t have to worry about affordability, as younger generations must contend with.
Even if the Iran conflict is resolved, Trump will shift his focus to another country and repeat the cycle until the end of his term. He’s intent on securing a Nobel Prize or otherwise being recognized as a “great geopolitical strategist.” Again, this is like his first term, when he focused on thawing North Korea relations, and then Iran.
From a psychological perspective, this makes sense being that his whole worldview centers around power. Trump seeks validation and recognition from important, powerful people, even if they are not necessarily on his side. Receiving the Nobel Prize would represent the highest possible distinction, and at the same time, would be a repudiation of his doubters. There is no higher form of winning in his eyes. Once you understand this rationale, Trump’s actions (or inaction about domestic policy) make more sense.
By contrast, there are fewer comparable prizes or recognition for domestic policy achievements or policy. Except for major breakthroughs such as the ratification of Social Security or the Civil Rights Act, historians typically don’t recognize domestic policy as being at the same level as foreign policy. For example, Winston Churchill is much for famous or remembered for his foreign policy than his economic policy. Trump sees or models himself after Churchill in this sense, with Iran fitting perfectly into this. If Trump cannot be forced into war out of necessity, he will create one.
An obvious exception are tariffs, which fall squarely under domestic policy. But these have not helped with affordability. If anything, they have been a windfall for large businesses, which raised prices on consumers and now stand to collect refunds, and while keeping prices high. And a win for lawyers, who are suing on behalf of their clients to collect such refunds, and also federal lawyers seeking to hold up the tariffs where the SCOTUS ruling does not apply, or to refuse refunds. The refunds, legal costs, and red tape, as I mentioned a few weeks ago, will negate any revenue–basically, a wash.
This was the biggest problem with the tariffs–not that they would crash the economy as so many wrongly predicted–but instead just lead to more waste and regulation, amounting a net zero or loss for consumers and most businesses. The only winners are lawyers and huge companies with the pricing power to pass on the costs.