Bitcoin suddenly falls after attempt at $70k: it still sucks

It seemed like $70k Bitcoin was just around the corner Sunday night following renewed enthusiasm after a Trump campaign event at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s, only for the rug to be pulled out again. The magic $68k chart, which I posted months ago, is still intact. Sub $20k is still happening, likely next year (although I will still make money regardless). And my shorting method is working after a setback over the past 2 weeks. It’s not like I make money with this everyday, but when it does, it pays big.

When one of the smartest people says something is going happen, it’s reasonable to assume it’s going to happen, or at least is more probable than if someone who is less intelligent makes the opposite prediction. That is a good heuristic to use. One thing you will notice is the people who speculate in crypto tend to not be that smart, although like everything in life there are some exceptions, which is why they are so vulnerable to crypto scams.

A second heuristic is if it seems logically plausible. It’s also reasonable to assume that tech companies will outperform a speculative asset that is driven more by gambling and greed than fundamentals such as profits and usage. I don’t talk about being a great writer, blogger, or great at math. I am at best fairly decent at those, but not among the best. But being a great investor is supported by evidence.

Being smart is knowing your epistemic limitations. This is why I have not made a prediction for who will win the 2024 election. I have not made any posts saying it will be Trump, as much as I may want him to win, or as popular as he appears. The upsets of 2016 basically invalidated polling as a science. It does not matter how smart anyone is if the system is unknowable. Really smart people were sure Hillary would win in 2016. Or that Brexit would not happen. There is too much lumpiness with the Electoral College math and uncertainty with turnout to make any predictions or to rely on polling.

I have been reading Adam Townsend for a couple weeks. I agree with his politics and such, but Bitcoin is a bad idea. In August 2024 when Bitcoin crashed from $69k to as low as $49k, he disclosed he took a hit on his latest purchases:

On October 20th yesterday as prices approached $70k, he commended himself…that sure did not last given the crash this morning:

From what I can ascertain from his tweets he’s involved in VC or something like that. It’s not like he’s off the grid and is trying to hide his money from the authorities and would want Bitcoin. Otherwise, there is no reason to own Bitcoin when stocks are better. Stick the money in some QQQ and watch it grow; no need to be on the edge of your seat watching your crypto whipsaw 20% in a month, only to end unchanged after 3 years, when the stock market keeps going up.

With Bitcoin resuming its crash after its attempt at $70k, it’s days like today where tech proves to be the superior investment compared to crypto. With leveraged tech, none of this waking up to find my investments are down 5-10% in a flat market. I know, long term, tech stocks are going up–along with certain retail companies such as Walmart and McDonald’s, which I have recommended on the blog for years.

Someone can respond that Bitcoin is volatile and that dips such as today are temporary, unavoidable, and are good buying opportunities. They are avoidable: by choosing stocks over crypto (such as leveraged QQQ), which are less volatile relative to returns compared to Bitcoin. This answers all of those. Eventually people will see that their crypto investments have not done shit over the years while the stock market has gone up, and realize they were mistaken or mislead.

I don’t have to worry about either the governments regulating my fake money out of existence, or old wallets coming back to life to dump supply, or if fake money is a fad or not. I know that the biggest and most dominant of tech companies are here to stay. NVDA, META, Apple and so on.

In a recent tweet he references a video from 2020, so he’s been involved in Bitcoin for years (although at the time he said he did not own any, so I’m guessing he bought some after the video was recorded):

Of course, I could be wrong. But even if he did buy Bitcoin at $10-20k in 2020, this does not make it a good investment going forward; it just meant he was lucky. Tech is still superior long-term.