$20k Bitcoin Target Coming Up

Bitcoin crash continues, down $3k overnight.

Yeah, I know I sound like a broken record. This is the 4th or so time it has ‘crashed’ over the past 3 months, but it’s not a matter of ‘if’ it goes $20k, but when. Looking at the chart, it’s evident that this is a replay of 2022. My target is $15-20k within 12-18 months:

It has already dropped $1k since I took the screenshot. In November 2021 it looked like a little dip as it fell from the then-high of $69k to ‘only’ $64k. And then as we all know, the floor fell out to as low as $20k a year later. If and when BTC collapses, it will be sudden, invoking the metaphorical house of cards collapsing. This is it: similar to $69k in 2021, $73k was the peak for 2024, and it’s going back to $20k.

As to be expected, journalists are blaming reasons that dance/avoid the most obvious one: Bitcoin is a bubble, likely in the deflating stage of its lifecycle. Interest rates, ETF inflows/outflows, and inflation and are not to blame. Look at how stocks keep going up, and yet Bitcoin is falling. If interest rates and inflation was to blame, we would expect stocks to be falling too. It’s evident that macro factors can no longer be blamed for Bitcoin’s weakness, but rather the bubble is imploding.

A 50% drop must start with a 5% one. I think this is it. Anyway, slowly at first and then rapidly is how these things go. ‘Big money’ has abandoned Bitcoin or is in the process of doing so. VCs have long abandoned BTC for AI (such as Open AI and other start-ups). Now is Wall St.’s turn (such as dumping Bitcoin and buying Nvidia stock), and the last is public, that will be holding the bag and the last to sell. The public is always the last to know they have been taken for a ride.

In 2022 there was tons of hype by the likes of Marc Andreessen that crypto would revolutionize small payments, going on every podcast to promote his idea. What ever came of that? It already exists, like Venmo. There is no need for a worse non-solution. How anyone continues to take these jokers seriously is beyond me.

Worse still, due to high inflation, Bitcoin’s real return is a negative 14-percent since its 2021 November peak, even if the price is unchanged. How long will institutions and the public continue to buy something which is not only highly volatile and risky (such as regulatory risk and risk due to hackers and theft), but does not even beat inflation? Boring stocks not only hedge inflation (the S&P 500 is up a lot since 2021), but much less risk too.

As usual, analysts and other pretend-experts continue to trot out their six-figure Bitcoin price targets, like they did in 2017/2018 and in 2021/2022, and were wrong then and will be wrong again here too. Even the most pessimistic bull forecast from 2017-2022 has failed to come true. It has been six years since $100k was promised as ‘just around the corner’; maybe it’s time to hang it up?

If a hundred people are predicting Bitcoin is going higher, and the smartest person says it won’t, the smartest person is still more likely to be right despite being outnumbered. It does not matter how many Twitter followers or money someone like Michael Saylor has: IQ is still a more reliable predictor for who will be right. We see this over and over again. Maybe taking financial advice from the same guy whose company imploded in 2000 after it disclosed an ‘accidental’ accounting irregularity, is not such a prudent idea?

crazy cokehead with lightning bolts coming out of his head or competent leather-jacket guy; the choice is obvious.

Expertise does not scale like how other things scale. A single physicist is still probably going to know more about quantum mechanics compared to a hundred non-physicists. A single rocket scientist stands a better shot of building a working rocket than a hundred people who don’t know anything about about rockets, even if they are all working together.