The ‘magic screenshot‘ never fails, Bitcoin now at $60k after $68k last week. Bitcoin has now fallen $8k since the scam conference ended. Here is what I wrote:
Bitcoin is back to $68k, where I took the screenshot on June 11th 2024. This is the last attempt of a recovery until it drops for good. In 5-10 years Bitcoin may not even be relevant anymore. As the bubble pops, so too will the lobbying power. There is no one left to buy who hasn’t already bought. Given the constant selling and inability to hold gains, it is evident that no amount of hype or promises can make the Bitcoin price go up anymore. My thesis has always been that tech stocks are better than Bitcoin. ‘Big tech’ is the future of the US economy and the world, not blockchain.
By shorting Bitcoin last week this was enough to offset the losses in tech stocks, so I came out flat for the week. This is what I should have done in 2022. I am not going to make this mistake again.
Regarding Iran and Israel, like in April 2024, I am not expecting much to happen, in which I was also correct then too; a lot of bluster and limited strikes by both parties. There will be no escalation to world war or anything like that. The international community’s opinion is irrelevant in the matter as long as Israel has the full and unconditional backing of the US.
This is similar to how I was right in 2022 about the Russia-Ukraine conflict being self-limited and eventually blowing over, to now being forgotten. No one wants another world war, so predicting de-escalation or stalemate instead of escalation tends to be the more accurate forecast. With the 2024 election, the Olympics, and Iran dominating the headlines, no one is even talking about Ukraine anymore. Tens of billions of aid sent to a grifter without a second thought. This is why ‘current thing’ is a meme.
Nor am I expecting the U.S. economy to fall into recession despite the weak jobs number on Friday. It does not matter that much. The fed will lower rates, which should be enough to prop up the market anyway for now. But by shorting Bitcoin I should be fine.
Even Bloomberg has caught that Bitcoin has underperformed a basket of mag-7 stocks: Big Tech Beats Bitcoin as Unwinding Trump Trade Weighs on Token.
Bitcoin is basically like a tech stock, but with much more macro, political, and regulatory risk, plus sudden crashes as surprise supply enters the market (Mt Gox, Silk Road coins, Grayscale, Germany, etc.). It is inferior in every way except for that it cannot be revocated, because of cryptography.
But this only applies to a tiny percentage of people who use it, who want to protect their stash and take the necessary steps to ensure the privacy and access to the keys. The majority of people who use crypto are not smart or knowledgeable enough to do this correctly and typically make a misstep that results in eventual funds loss either due to theft or absentmindedness.
Overall, most people buy crypto on an exchange and then leave it there, or use custodians, or proxies such as ETFs, or poorly-secured hardware wallets with the password in plain sight. Those people would be better off just not having crypto at all.