Bitcoin 2024 conference is over.
Bitcoin peaked at $70k last night, and now crashing to $68k, which is where it was before the conference. So I was right that it would be a dud and fail to boost the price, and as of writing this, Bitcoin keeps falling.
Trump promised a bunch of stuff:
-Creation of a Bitcoin reserve
-Commute Ross Ulbricht’s sentence to ‘time served’
-Fire SEC chairman Gary Gensler
Despite being bearish on Bitcoin, I still support Mr. Ulbricht’s sentence being commuted on principle and fairness. He got a bad deal and his life sentence was a miscarriage of justice. The 11 or so years he has already spent behind bars (he was sentenced in 2015 but has been behind bars since 2013, after his arrest, having been denied bail) is commensurate with other notable white collar crimes or drug crimes. Even Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to ‘only’ 25 years for perpetrating arguably one of the biggest frauds ever. Or Elizabeth Holmes only getting 11 years for a similar massive fraud.
Similar cases involving the sale of illicit drugs on the ‘dark web’ have typically resulted in sentences ranging from 5-15 years, so Mr. Ulbricht’s life sentence is a notable outlier. Had Ross been sentenced to 15 years, assuming a maximum 15% reduction for ‘good time’, pre-sentencing (he was denied bail), and other deductions, 11 years is how long he could have expected to spend behind bars, so he would be getting released now.
Additionally, during the trial, two federal agents were charged with stealing some of the Bitcoin involved in the case, which alone should discredit their testimonies (and the credibility of the FBI overall), and the case should have been thrown out or declared a mistrial on that alone.
Bitcoin is back to $68k, where I took the screenshot on June 11th 2024. This is the last attempt of a recovery until it drops for good. In 5-10 years Bitcoin may not even be relevant anymore. As the bubble pops, so too will the lobbying power. There is no one left to buy who hasn’t already bought. Given the constant selling and inability to hold gains, it is evident that no amount of hype or promises can make the Bitcoin price go up anymore. My thesis has always been that tech stocks are better than Bitcoin. ‘Big tech’ is the future of the US economy and the world, not blockchain.