AFIK, I was the first, in late 2021, to argue that leveraged tech is superior to Bitcoin and “this decade’s Bitcoin“, and that Bitcoin would severely lag tech stocks, while at the same time track the stock market on the downside. Fast-forward to 2024 and Bitcoin is dying as tech stocks surge, as I said would happen. The prediction could not have gone better.
Just as only a handful of people in 2015 predicted Trump would win, shortly after he announced his candidacy, I, AFIK, was the only person to make this specific prediction about Bitcoin lagging tech stocks. And second, AFIK, the first person to make the link between the government selling its Bitcoin holdings and weak price action on weekdays.
Governments and hedge funds are dumping Bitcoin on weekday mornings. Government and hedge fund offices open in the morning on the East Cost during the weekdays, precisely when Bitcoin is weakest and rapidly falls. Is this coincidence? Certainty not. The German government is rapidly dumping Bitcoin, which is causing panic among investors, along with the U.S. government at the same time every morning. This is to take advantage of increased liquidity when the stock market is open on the weekdays.
Recall, the feds seized over 50,000 of Silk Road Bitcoin, in addition to others, which they are gradually and steadily selling on weekdays on Coinbase. Taking into account time zone differences, the German government also times its selling to when the U.S. stock market opens. The end result is a trifecta of selling at a predictable time every morning from hedge funds and the German and U.S. governments. Oh, and also $9 billion of Mt. Gox coins, too. Those will also likely be sold gradually in batches by creditors, who are institutions that bought Mt. Gox claims (not retail investors), on weekday mornings, adding again to selling pressure.
Owing to high IQ, I was able to identify this pattern as far back as early-2023/late-2022 and begin shorting Bitcoin during this timeframe. It has worked well over the past few years and especially the past month, allowing me to profit greatly by both shorting Bitcoin and buying leveraged tech, running the strategies concurrently with leverage. Recall, I only short Bitcoin when the stock market is open, not 24-7. The Bitcoin short is highly profitable in its own right, and also acts as a hedge against the leveraged tech positions. If there was a bear market, the Bitcoin short would offset this to some degree or more.
Others have possibly picked up on this too, but have not yet identified the link between the offices opening and the selling, as I have done.
From @DaanCrypto, Bitcoin crashed this morning again, from $57k to $55k (I was short and profited greatly from this):
#Bitcoin Retraced the entire move + Open interest that was added earlier today.
Complete wipe out of all the price action. pic.twitter.com/X5CESSbDC5
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) July 8, 2024
German government accelerating selling:
The German government is accelerating the pace at which they are selling their #Bitcoin.
After these current transfers the amount is now down to about half of what it was when they started selling.
From ~50K $BTC down to ~24K $BTC already. https://t.co/DdAgAL1487 pic.twitter.com/GN8uQhV8R0
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) July 8, 2024
Again, coincidence? I think not.