My accuracy is an astonishing “n for n” for predictions for 2023, meaning I got everything right. What is even more remarkable about this is that some of the predictions are at odds with each other, such as Bitcoin lagging the Nasdaq. Most people would assume that Bitcoin would outperform on the upside during a bull market. Or that there would be a bear market in stocks and crypto. I was the only only one AFIK to predict the correct combination, that being weakness in Bitcoin and a huge rally in stocks.
1. First one: Bitcoin continues to fall in accordance with the chart pattern described in earlier posts, now at $29,300 vs $30,900 from the screenshot from last week. It’s going back to $24,800.
2. Underperformance of Bitcoin relative to QQQ/TECL/TQQQ during bull market as predicted by blog in 2022 and early 2023. This is strikingly evident since April 2023:
3. Bitcoin shorting method still working, over half a year later. This pattern portends to much more downside, due to ‘shadow’ selling. An entity, likely the US government, is offloading Bitcoin on Coinbase , presumably the fifty-thousand seized Silk Road Bitcoin during the James Zhong raid (the Ulbricht coins were sold to a private investor in 2014), during market hours when the stock market is open , which can explain why this method works so well and why Bitcoin is so weak most of the time (even if up 80 percent this year). On the 12th of July, the feds moved $300 million of Bitcoin, which was when the price was at $31,000; now at $29,300. You can see the huge red candle the following day when the price crashed from $31k to $30k intraday (I profited big that day):
The idea of the method is the weakness is isolated to a specific, predictable timeframe which I am able to exploit for profit, so I can still make money shorting even if Bitcoin is up a lot for the year. By having such a high IQ and superior pattern recognition that comes with it, I was able to ascertain by looking at the chart when the government is selling its holdings and then front-run the selling, and have been doing this for the past six months to make a lot of money.
The irony is that Coinbase is simultaneously trying to get people to invest/buy crypto, and dumping crypto on those very customers.
4. Turkish Lira keeps crashing. As correctly predicted, the 2022 recovery to Turkish economy would be undone, which it has. Another correct one.
5. Meta stock above $320/share, surging another 7 percent on huge earnings. Meta has staged the ultimate comeback. Love him or hate him (most probably in the latter camp) Zuck is doing everything right. The tech takeover of America as prophesized by this blog as far back as 2014 and earlier iterations of the blog as far back as 2007 is coming true. Meta will be worth $3 trillion soon, like Apple. Meta is taking over the internet, and Zuck will make further inroads into politics. Zuck combines high IQ with wealth and ability to execute. This makes him possibly very effective. Having all three is rare. Some are good at only two. He has his pulse on things and knows what alliances to make, such as making overtures to both sides. He knows the far-left is nuts, yet cares about social justice too, as most liberals do. He knows that the right’s concerns are not without merit either, and opposes having to police content for misinformation. Another one.
For all the people who say high IQ means nothing, is overrated, or is not important, to be right about so many things–even things in which we can assume to not be correlated or at odds with each other (like substantial Bitcoin weakness relative to tech stocks in a bull market), or figuring out how to front-run Coinbase Silk Road selling, are examples of applying superior IQ and pattern recognition (which is highly correlated with IQ) to make predictions and make money. Trading, to a large extent, is about pattern recognition and finding trends; it stands to reason having a higher IQ can only help.
Because I have one of the highest IQs in the world (170-180 by my estimate), by myself and in my free time I am able to find patterns and superior strategies that elude experts and firms that have entire full-time staff of credentialed experts (such as investing in big tech in 2014 before it became trendy and making 12x my money on that). The ‘family office’ fund that I run passively has posted a 30 percent CAGR since 2014, which beats any other fund. No need for software and other complicated stuff like that. I just ‘see’ the patterns and strategies. Most people when they encounter complexity or large quantities of data, freeze up or are overwhelmed. I however quickly start making mental zig-zags between the pieces/nodes to decipher an underlying rule or pattern.
Jim’s Blog at reaction.la claims that crypto, esp. Bitcoin, will inevitably go up again, due to all the greedy corrupt governments stealing their citizens’ money. But it will require more secure and faster software.