Bitcoin update: crash to commence–crypto has no future in society

Time for another update, Bitcoin has gone up a bit but still unable to get above 31k. Meanwhile, the stock market keeps going up. So I still make money being short even in a bull market, and then with my leveraged tech stock positions I still make money on the long side, too. The chart pattern I discussed earlier is still valid and portends to major downside. You can see the same bearish choppiness/sloppiness repeating, denoted by the squares:

(it has already fallen a lot since that that screenshot was taken)

I only short Bitcoin during market hours, when I expect news of the rejection of the recent Bitcoin ETF applications to be announced (the SEC and other govt. agencies tend to almost always drop important news in the morning on weekdays), causing the price to crash.

Also noteworthy, as evidence of possessing such great investing and trading prowess, is avoiding all the land mines of betting against cryptocurrency. I could have bet against MicroStrategy (denoted in blue), Bitcoin miners (purple), or Coinbase (gold) and lost a lot–but didn’t–only focusing on Bitcoin, which has clearly lagged, even the QQQ (green):

In 2021 I was bearish on MicroStrategy and expected it to fail due to debt and the decline of Bitcoin. I was right about Bitcoin falling, but MicroStrategy stock has held up quite well and has surged this year, way more than Bitcoin itself. So I was wrong, but I never bet against it. Stocks have too many variables, unlike commodities, which obey certain equilibrium conditions, many of which can be made mathematically precise using 1-d, two-particle analogues of modern physics concepts (described in more detail here). Stocks are controlled by management, who can manipulate the price.

Overall, future of cryptocurrency is at the bottom of the ocean, along with the remains of OceanGate. In disagreement with Balaji, ‘big tech’ is the future, not ‘crypto ecosystems’ or ‘network states’. These dozen or so huge companies will continue make gains in AI, and also influence and play major roles almost every aspect of our everyday lives, but the rest of the federal government will remain intact too, especially defense and 3-letter agencies (which are close with tech companies). But some other roles of the federal government may be outsourced to tech companies in the coming decades. This is already happening to some extent in regard to surveillance. Crypto has no such place or role in such a society, sorry to say.

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