Regarding the Trump situation, my prediction is he will not be arrested, for several reasons:
1. It will set a precedent that neither side wants to embark on. It’s sometimes believed that Clinton’s impeachment was in retaliation for Nixon’s impeachment. And Trump being impeached was in retaliation for that. So this leaves the left open to retaliation. Even with a biased DOJ, it still introduces risks, like regarding Hunter Biden or Hillary.
2. It will not help the dems in 2024. By turning Trump into a literal political prisoner, this will probably massively boost turnout in 2024 against Biden (or whoever the democratic nominee is). Even if Trump cannot run, Biden’s approval ratings are low enough that he stands to lose regardless of whoever his opponent will be.
3. The sequence of events does not lead me to believe that it will culminate in an arrest, even for a misdemeanor offence. If Trump being in possession of the documents is illegal, why wait to arrest him? For serious, national-level crimes such as espionage typically the investigation is done covertly and the suspect is indicted and arrested, without the fanfare of a search warrant that is broadcast on national news. Why would the feds want to tip off the subject to a potential investigation if not necessary? The search instead would be done covertly. This is standard procedure, called a sneak and peek warrant. So my guess is, maybe Trump broke the law but he will not be charged, because they would have done so already. This was the case with Roger Stone…the feds simply showed up at his residence and arrested him, without any tipoff or warning.
4. The documents were known to be missing for a long time. An effort was made months ago to try to retrieve them from the Mar A Lago premises, which got no media coverage. If this is such a serious matter, why wait so long?
Of course, there is always the option to charge him later. He’s not a flight risk, and it’s not like he can hide or go anywhere. So it’s not like there is a pressing need to do anything.
5. Even if Trump is charged he may not serve jail time. Sandy Berger, who served from 1997-2001 as a national security advisor to Bill Clinton, was sentenced to “two years of probation plus community service for unauthorized removal of classified material from the National Archives.” This is not what the left wants; they want Trump behind bars, not just sentenced to probation and community service. Technically, justice is still served, but it does not satisfy the thirst for retribution or punishment that comes with a trial, a conviction, and a long jail sentence.
So, no, Trump will not be led out of his house in handcuffs. There will be no trial. At worst, Trump will be charged with something (likely a misdemeanor offense of ‘mishandling of classified documents’) and then a deal will be worked out with the prosecutor in which he avoids any jail time.
Again, this also goes to show how bad people are are forecasting. Not only did no one see this coming, but no one correctly predicted what the documents were about. The assumption was it was about Russia or maybe Jan 6th. Instead it was about nuclear secrets.