myocarditis and covid

Some people are mad at Joe Rogan for being wrong in regard to covid and myocarditis. Here is the relevant clip.

So the argument is that the incidence of myocarditis is higher among young people who get Covid, compared to young people who are vaccinated. So case closed, huh? Not so fast.

This compassion makes the implicit assumption that all young people will get Covid. Joe Rogan may still be wrong, but this important detail cannot be overlooked. But let us assume that 1/100 young people who are vaccinated get myocarditis, and that 1/10 young people who get Covid will also get myocarditis. But if only 1/10 of young people get Covid, the risk is actually the same.

Also it’s possible that myocarditis is only found in Covid that is severe enough to require medical attention. So imagine that a million young people get infected, and of those a thousand develop symptoms that are severe enough to require medical attention, and of those ten develop myocarditis. It would be wrong to extrapolate this rate (10/1000) to all young people who get infected.

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