2022 plans

Prediction posts and year-in-review posts are time consuming to write, so here are some plans for 2022. The prediction post will come later, but it will not be changed much from my predictions last year.

1. Publish the 3x ETF method, which blows Bitcoin away. I already began work on in this in 2020 but intend to finish it.

2. Write a math paper and maybe publish it on a pre-print archive. After having mastered econ, stocks, and finance I decided to embark on a much more intellectually demanding challenge: pure math. It was as hard as I expected, because I pretty much had to learn all the important math I had missed after college, which is a long time. I am always posting about how Taleb uses Mathematica as a crutch, so to demonstrate that I am at least in a position to criticize someone else’ math publishing abilities, I have taken it upon myself to write at least a half-decent math paper (or at least a better one than anything produced by Taleb, which is not a high bar). I have already done all the hard work of deriving the key results, which having consulted over 50 sources and two mathematicians via email in the relevant field, is to the best of my knowledge a new result. So next step is typing it up.

These two alone will take a long time to complete.

3. Read more blogs, e-books, and websites. I want to do more reading, find more blogs and podcasts to follow.

4. Develop system to short Bitcoin, make $ [if I use it]. Shorting crypto should be profitable by following certain indicators. In 2012 I was doing some research about general relativity and other physics concepts, and it occurred to me that single and two-dimensional analogous of such equations could also work for the stock market, which I wrote down but never used. Although markets are understood to be random, markets still follow certain symmetry and conservation law conditions, which add some order to what otherwise seems random. When people say markets are random or that economics cannot be predicted, my answer is “you’re not looking hard enough or are not imaginative enough” The idea is that the ‘smoothness’ of charts and other properties can be encoded into a value between 0 and 1 which tells you how likely it is for the price to fall in the short-term.