“Amazon is not too big to fail … In fact, I predict one day Amazon will fail. Amazon will go bankrupt. If you look at large companies, their lifespans tend to be 30-plus years, not a hundred-plus years,” Bezos told staff, according to a recording that was heard by CNBC.
I have more confidence in Amazon than even its founder. Amazon has been one of my favorite and best-performing investments for the past four year. I see no reason for this to change. What’s happening is that offline retail is being subsumed by online retail such as Amazon, which is more efficient and has a better experience for the customer. No more needing to drive 2 hours through traffic and finding parking spot when one can just buy everything on Amazon and have it delivered. I cannot prove that Amazon will not fail within the next 30 years, but most people who predict failure and crisis tend to have really abysmal track records, or they just don’t know what they are talking abut due to getting key details wrong, or are ideologically motivated. Look at all those media pundits who predicted that Brexit, and then later Trump, would threaten the global economy. People actually believed that Trump would provoke a global war, yet the evidence has shown that Trump has done more to engender peace and stability than possibly any other president in recent history. Or those people who predicted a couple months ago that Tesla would fail. Ask them how their prediction is doing and they may, not surprisingly, change the subject or ignore you.