Charlie Munger devised what he calls ‘mental models‘. These are a prescriptive set of guidelines/heuristics for being more rational. I, on the other hand, devised the ‘simple systems’ model, which is more descriptive than prescriptive, and posits that the world is composed of competing ‘systems’ that seek to optimize capital, given all possible alternatives. From… Continue reading “Simple Systems”
Month: September 2017
Grey notes: The Triumph of Capital
This article was going viral: Why American Workers Pay Twice as Much in Taxes as Wealthy Investors Americans in the top 1 percent, and especially the top 0.1 percent, have seen their wealth and income multiply in recent decades as the rest of the country’s share of the economic pie shrank. Since 2000, a recent… Continue reading Grey notes: The Triumph of Capital
Daca Disappointment
Republicans think Trump is going soft on immigration. They will devour him Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ hats burned over Daca deal Trump reneging on his campaign promises and rhetoric? I could have told you that 10 months ago. I think Trump is doing a good job–good as in carrying out the perfunctory duties of… Continue reading Daca Disappointment
Estimating the decay parameters of leveraged & inverse etfs
*This article assumes the reader understands how inverse and leveraged ETFs work* Zhang’s 2010 paper, Path-Dependence Properties of Leveraged Exchange-Traded Funds: Compounding, Volatility and Option Pricing, gives a closed-form formula for estimating the decay of leveraged & inverse etfs. The formula: … [1.0] t=time in years (t=1 means one year) b=is the leverage factor (typically… Continue reading Estimating the decay parameters of leveraged & inverse etfs
Is ‘musicgate’ payback for ‘memo/Google-gate’?
The revelation that Equifax hired a ‘music major’ as their “chief security officer,” keeps blowing up, having now made the news everywhere: This story originally was broken by Reddit a week ago (as I reported), but has since been picked up by major media publications such as The Guardian, Chicago Tribune, and Market Watch. But… Continue reading Is ‘musicgate’ payback for ‘memo/Google-gate’?
Based Kevin D. Williamson
Kevin D. Williamson is a magnet for controversy. His articles provoke paroxysms of outrage, both from the ‘left’ and the ‘right’, whether it’s about ‘”towns deserving to die‘ or Trump supporters being ‘lazy and selfish‘. Yet there is a method to his madness (there is a skill to pissing off everyone who reads your columns… Continue reading Based Kevin D. Williamson
Nassim Taleb spreading more BS about intelligence research
For reasons that are unknown to me, Taleb is still highly regarded by the ‘right’ despite being more anti-HBD than even the SJW-left. OK, OK, I will say it publicly. I viscerally don't like S. Pinker, but I will take every RISK to help him fight insidious censorship. — NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 9, 2017 Viscerally..that’s… Continue reading Nassim Taleb spreading more BS about intelligence research
They are seeking leadership
On /r/JordanPeterson, posts like these by millennials are common: The flip side of nihilism: Just because there’s no inherent purpose to being doesn’t mean we have to get all upset about it. Is simply being not good enough for you? And if your conclusion is that it isn’t, then fine. You can kill yourself. Seriously,… Continue reading They are seeking leadership
Equifax Hack: Analysis
This is going viral: Equifax, where 143 million indentities were just stolen, has a CSO who studied music in college. From 2009-2013, she was a “professional” (whatever that means) at First Data Corporation. Was she hired due to her gender or experience? Who knows. Was she the most qualified? Likely not. The worst? Also unlikely.… Continue reading Equifax Hack: Analysis
Debate: Vox Day vs. Andrew Anglin
DEBATE: Andrew Anglin vs Vox Day on National Socialism Given Vox Day’s high IQ (he says it’s around 145) and superior knowledge of history, I expected him to easily put Anglin away. That didn’t happen. A problem is, you cannot look at Nazism from a contemporary, conventional left-right dichotomy, because those terms were different then… Continue reading Debate: Vox Day vs. Andrew Anglin