His momentum can’t be stopped. Trump is posting his strongest showing yet in Florida and North Carolina, up 3pts for both states according to 538. His odds on are now 36%, a gain of 20% in just 2 weeks. There is also no evidence to suggest Hillary is recovering in any way. Just to give an idea of the magnitude of the Trump surge:
Some on the left are complaining that Nate’s odds – 35% for Trump – are too high compared to Huffington Post and New York Times, which have odds of 15%. But Trump is surging in all the swing states, for example, Ohio. Nate was among the first to revise Ohio red, a week ago. Nate also revised Florida and North Carolina red early on too. Meanwhile, old, inaccurate liberal biased polls are still assigning those states ‘toss up’ status or giving Hillary a lead. Denial at its finest.
Obama won Iowa in 2008 and 2012. Since the 1988, the only time the dems failed to win it was in 2004, by only a tiny fraction, so Hillary’s large deficit here arguers poorly for similar states and the general election. The truth hurts, libs. Your candidate may lose, and the odds are a lot higher than you may want to believe. Trump’s huge Iowa lead bodes well for Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which have similar demographics and are part of Greater America, in contrast to the small, insular west and east coast regions where the left specializes. These ‘hard working’ states are going to deliver many votes for Trump, and possibly win him the election.
If the polls closed right at this moment (which they won’t) and if the results in each state perfectly mirrored the current RealClearPolitics average of polls in each state (which they won’t), Hillary Clinton would be elected president by an electoral college margin of 8 votes. From her high in the polls a week or two ago, Clinton’s leads in a number of critical battleground states have collapsed or evaporated entirely. The election could come down to one state with four electoral college votes that flips from Clinton to Donald Trump and, boom: A 269-269 electoral college tie, and a vote by the House of Representatives to decide on the next president — who, given the composition of the House, would almost certainly be Donald Trump.
Outside of the sjw-media, no one cares if Trump occasionally makes weird, outrageous, or paranoid remarks: first, he’s justified to be paranoid, and second, many people agree with him…and every time he does it his polls inch higher, as the useless pundits decry him for being ‘reckless’ or ‘unhinged’. The entire national politics rule book is changing…and the media does not understand this, only Trump does.
The desperation from the left is palpable…they are looking for anything to incriminate Trump and coming up short.
In an era where everything has become so predictable and the ‘status quo’ reigns, Trump’s massive two-week surge is anything but. Very few people (myself, Mike, Scott and a few others) saw it coming, as both the GOP and left had written Trump off for dead.
In such a tight election where every vote counts, people are going to turn out in droves for Trump, judging by the enthusiasm for him online and at his rallies. Meanwhile, women, minorities and millennials, whom Clinton is courting, will stay home and not vote in the same volume as they did in 2008 and 2012.
There are other reasons for the Clinton campaign to worry. Among voters who have cast early ballots, she leads Trump by about 8 points. At the same point in the 2012 race, President Barack Obama had a lead of 11 points among early voters over Republican rival Mitt Romney. Obama’s gap narrowed, however, to 6 points just before Election Day, according to the States of the Nation project and separate Reuters/Ipsos polling.
If black Democratic turnout drops by 15 points nationally, for example, Clinton’s odds of winning drop to about 72 percent, by a projected margin of just 32 Electoral College votes. A drop of 20 points would reduce the odds of a Clinton victory to little more than a coin toss, according to the project.
Even a 10-point drop in black Democratic turnout coupled with a 5-point increase among white Republicans would flip the race to Trump, the project found.
As confirmed by actual data showing a lack of enthusiasm for Hilly by blacks and other minorities:
On Friday, a poll of 506 Pennsylvania voters by Harper Polling showed Trump has the support of 18.46 percent of African-Americans. That’s eight points more than Romney’s share of the national vote in 2012, and if it proves true during the ballot, that 18.46 percent African-American support translates into 2 point shift towards Trump. The poll also said another 4.6 percent were undecided.
This is part of the reason Hillary’s odds have been plunging.
Hillary with Jay-z and Beyonce, and the left wonders why they are out of touch:
— Doug Mills (@dougmillsnyt) November 5, 2016
This is pretty funny..Hillary gets dissed at her own event: