The ‘right’ is ambivalent about Trump signing H.J.Res. 31, the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2019. Among the establishment-right, no one can make heads or tails out of this, and are waiting to see what happens. We knew it was not going to be good, and this confirms our already low expectations. The bill contains an amnesty clause, among other problems. Meanwhile, until we see what Trump’s next move is, as further evidence of narrative collapse, the Smollett story is dominating the news cycle now.
The biggest hurdle that Trump has faced from the onset is that in the eyes of policy makers, Hispanic immigration is not a problem. Our opinions do not matter much. Unless it involves terrorism, no one in charge cares that much. Policy makers have become inured to immigration, and don’t care about demographic change, but rather look at it in terms of economics and public safety. The logic of policy makers is, “you got all these Hispanics coming in every year, as well as cumulative population growth of the descendants of immigrants, and although they may commit crime at a slightly higher rate than Whites (although less than Blacks), they mostly mind their own business and don’t cause too many problems. Some start businesses and pay taxes; others consume social benefits and are an economic drain, and it’s hard to make a definitive determination how much of a net gain or loss over the long-run Hispanic immigration is for the U.S. economy. There are studies that show benefits and others that show costs. If you don’t like it, too bad.”
There’s tons of black pilling going on in the Unz comments section. Everyone is saying that they saw it all along that Trump would sellout, yet as I can recall reading Unz in 2015-2017, all but maybe 10% of people commenting were pro-Trump; now it has flipped. I did not predict Trump would sellout, but rather in 2017, that he would be ineffective at accomplishing his immigration campaign promises.
Trump’s approval ratings are surging, up 2% in just a week, which in addition to a surging stock market and strong economy, bodes well for 2020. A rating above 45 is deep trouble for the left, because approval polls generally underestimate Republican support and over-inflate Democratic support. Trump supporters don’t usually go around proclaiming how pro-Trump they are, but are more covert about it. Being openly pro-Trump in many areas is an invitation for violence.
I predict that H.J.Res. 31, although underwhelming, will not hurt Trump’s reelection hopes. All Trump needs in order to be reelected is for the economy and stock market to not falter, and for Trump to demonstrate some progress on immigration control, whatever that may be. Trump’s declaration of national emergency is good optics and conveys the illusion action by generating a ton of headlines, which is good enough. People will think that H.J.Res. 31 and the national emergency is the prelude to the wall, and on the 2020 trail he can argue that he ‘negotiated a good deal’ (even if it wasn’t) and that ‘the wall will be built soon’ (even if it won’t). The pundits and some commenters keep being wrong about how Trump sold out; even if he did, in the minds of most voters he didn’t. Pundits such as Ann and Derb have much higher expectations and awareness of the issues than the typical voter.
Yet again I was correct in 2017 in predicting no recession. The left was hopeful in late 2018 when the S&P 500 was as much as 20% off its high that there would be a recession and a bear market, but nope. Carpet pulled out again. Just like hopes for impeachment due to the Mueller investigation, which many liberals in 2017-2018 were certain would be the undoing of Trump, keeps coming up empty handed.