Day 2: $500 billion AI investment, Ross Ulbricht pardoned, and stocks up again–thanks to huge Oracle and Netflix earnings and optimism over Trump economy. Everything is going exactly as I said it would. Everyone getting wins, but people who wanted Bitcoin reserve, who left empty-handed despite donating the most. That is the irony of it.… Continue reading Day 2: The Dynamics of Power + Bonus Math Problem

The big story is no Bitcoin reserve, or any executive order regarding crypto for that matter. Although of course there is always the possibility it happens later, it does not look good given that Trump signed a bunch of other executive orders, but ignored the one thing his donors had expected and hoped for. No… Continue reading Day 1: No Bitcoin reserve. Right again?

Regarding the Trump crypto reserve, that too is setting up to be a major disappointment. I contemplated increasing my Polymarket bet against the Bitcoin reserve happening, but the terms of the contract are not clear enough. A ‘Bitcoin reserve’ can mean many things, and when a lot of money is at stake I want to… Continue reading Trump crypto reserve setting up for disappointment

In the post “Why good writing is one of the hardest things ever” I discuss why writing is possibly harder than STEM, even ‘hard math’, but I wish to expound on this. As someone who has done both I think I am qualified to make this determination. I’ve written math papers, read countless papers, done… Continue reading Why writing is harder than STEM, revisited

1. Interesting tweet: you know what Billionaire Patrons love? demonstrated competence in building towards goals they care about you want someone’s megaphone? be usefulhttps://t.co/vkfNWVNrV6 — TracingWoodgrains (@tracewoodgrains) January 16, 2025 @TheRealZBlog is correct. Trace sorta comes off as smug here by saying right-wingers are coping. Rufo benefited from huge branding by being backed by wealthy… Continue reading The Daily View: 1/1/7/2025: Merit and Punditry, Trump Crypto Reserve, Coca-Cola, the LSATs

A seemingly innocent tweet by anti-DEI stalwart Christopher F. Rufo has ignited a Twitter firestorm, not by his usual or predictable detractors, but by his supporters or those on the right attacking him as out of touch or a hypocrite, as evidenced by his tweet being heavily ‘ratioed’: This is basically "full employment." The Panda… Continue reading Meritocrats vs. Ethnocrats

Similar to ‘dead internet theory’, the declaration that society has entered ‘peak woke’ or that ‘wokeness has peaked’ is a hotly debated topic. The latest in this installment is Paul Graham’s hugely viral article The Origins of Wokeness, in which he declares wokeness peaked in 2020-2021, singling out the excesses of 2020 that culminated with… Continue reading Peak woke, part 1

I saw this going viral: Wolfram’s recent study on the IQ of 360 professions indicated the average IQ of tech careers was around 110. I don’t recall any being over 120 and some were close to 100. So, it isn’t the case that tech companies are staffing themselves with literal geniuses. There is no… pic.twitter.com/nXibVsFrYr… Continue reading UK data is unhelpful when trying to draw inferences to US employers/job market

I've met a lot of really smart people & I've never met a single one who wasn't aggressively wrong about something that a much dumber person could have explained to him People are finite & pretty small relative to the systems they try to apprehend https://t.co/pHWhoWwRH4 — Bennett's Phylactery (@extradeadjcb) January 7, 2025 Regarding the… Continue reading Enough with the folk wisdom about IQ

I am rolling some of my Bitcoin short profits today into additional “NO” contracts at 30-34 cents on Polymarket for Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? A 30% return in 3 months works out to an effective 190% annual return. The fact Trump did not mention Bitcoin or crypto anywhere in a… Continue reading No mention of ‘crypto reserve’ in Jan 5th 2025 Trump tweet