I saw this going viral, “Where Is the AI Jobs Crisis?“: If AI were triggering a jobs crisis, we would expect job openings to collapse and unemployment to climb, yet the opposite is happening. The number of job openings per unemployed worker has started to rise again and is now back above 1.0, meaning there… Continue reading What Happened to the AI Job Crisis?

In “The rise of the lock-in guy,” I discuss the phenomenon of people who are smart, but this is not evident until later in life, when special circumstances align. It’s not the same as unrecognized genius. Such genius is apparent to others in childhood, but it doesn’t manifest as anything outwardly special. Unlike chess, music,… Continue reading Why Some Smart People Appear Ordinary Until Adulthood

From Freddie deBoer, You Can and Should Blame Young People When They Act Like Lazy Cheaters, Actually. His article went massively viral, with 600 “likes,” so clearly it resonated with many people. But here, imho, he comes off as out of touch or a ladder-puller, having already succeeded at life and is now admonishing “today’s… Continue reading Freddie’s gatekeeping

Item 1: IQ and biases This is addressed to the people who post about IQ asserting as well-known facts that IQ tests are culturally biased, or don't measure anything but how to take IQ tests, or can be coached, or are affected by socioeconomic status. The list seems endless. I've got news for you.… —… Continue reading The daily view 6/5/2026: IQ, Berkeley math, Affordability, AI and Jobs, AI Bubble…

It’s commonly assumed that forecasting–especially as it pertains to economics, geopolitics, or finance–ranges from hard to impossible, owing to the claimed unpredictability of human behavior. You’ll often see books, articles, and TED talks by “experts” about how people act unpredictably or irrationally, so one may be inclined to think it’s hopeless trying to make predictions.… Continue reading Why human behavior is not as unpredictable/random as assumed

Just 5 months into 2026 is going down as my most accurate and profitable year ever. I’m firing on all cylinders here, profiting from Shorting Bitcoin, tech stocks surging, and Polymarket. Item #1: Bitcoin continues to fall, now below $67,000 in otherwise flat or rising market. Yet again, I was right here, here and here.… Continue reading The Daily View 6/2/2026: Bitcoin crashes, Iran, Job Openings

This went massively viral a little over a week ago, with over 10,000 “likes”: Nick Fuentes figured out that he lost nearly 30lbs. Going from 155lbs to 126lbs without dieting, medications or exercise. "You just need to stop eating…" ✍️🔥 pic.twitter.com/IwavtfCQzz — Asuka Groyper 🚬 (@asukagrypr) May 21, 2026 This is an example of good… Continue reading Thinness, Status, and Coping (why it’s okay to admit that being thin is good)

May 29th, 2026: Trump to decide imminently on Iran deal. Every week it’s another “imminent deal”. We saw this last week, too, only for nothing to happen. As I correctly predicted last week on the 25th, when there was yet again another “imminent deal,” it fell through, as I wrote: It’s the same pattern we’ve… Continue reading Another day, another deal

We’re in a paradoxical situation where although America nominally is wealthier than ever, at the same time, it’s become too hard to succeed for the median person, whether in academia, business, or pretty much anything else in life. This contradiction can be explained by an increasingly skewed distribution of returns, where extreme outliers capture enormous… Continue reading Why Everyone Feels Like They’re Losing

Deal or no deal? White House says Iran deal could take days. It was predictable how the headlines changed from “a deal is certain” 14 hours ago, to now “maybe?” It’s the same pattern we’ve seen for the past 3 months. There is not going to be any sort of “deal” because neither side can… Continue reading Profiting from Iran and Polymarket