Category: Uncategorized

Eternal September describes how in 1993 when Usenet forums became added to AOL there was a perceived sudden dumbing-down or reduction of quality of discourse due to the floodgates being opened to a larger, less internet-savvy audience. I think the same is seen regarding so-called ‘dead internet theory’–it’s not that AI or bots have replaced… Continue reading It’s not Dead Internet Theory. It’s more like Dumb Internet Theory

How did I know Trump would waffle on the reserve when everyone else was certain it would happen, only to be wrong? From my Jan 7th post a month ago, I observed that Trump hadn’t actually spoken or tweeted about the reserve, or about crypto at all. This was a negative development unbeknownst to everyone… Continue reading How I Knew there Would be No Reserve + Bonus Math Problem

The big story this weekend are the Trump tariffs. As to be expected the sensationist media is predicting the typical doom and gloom. Similar to Trump’s first tariffs during 2017, I am predicting these latest tariffs will only have a limited negative effect on the stock market, the overall US economy, or on inflation. Any… Continue reading Trump Tariffs a ‘nothing burger’

I am net bearish on Bitcoin and using it as a hedge against my leveraged tech portfolio. This method has done great since late 2022 even though the price of Bitcoin has appreciated considerably. Shorting bitcoin also worked great as a hedge last Friday when it fell from $104k to $102k in a flat overall… Continue reading Bitcoin weak again as I am right

The past 2 years has seen breathless proclamations by the media and ‘experts’ of an impending or inevitable ‘white-collar job apocalypse’ due to AI: With the launch of DeepSeek, we can expect such headlines will continue. My take is, the eagerly-awaited white-collar job die-off is motivated more by wishful thinking than economic reality. Claims by… Continue reading White-collar jobs will continue to thrive despite AI

I have been thinking about why some people are so much more successful compared to others. Are they smarter, luckier, or have more connections? I think a lot of it comes down to having a lot of uninterrupted free time. That is the magic ingredient or secret. Why does free time matter so much? 1.… Continue reading How much of individual success is attributable to free time?

A common narrative if that Trump’s newly-launched memecoin, $TRUMP, is a conduit for bribery. Although I’m not a fan of crypto, this argument has never made much sense or has obvious flaws. Noah Smith, in a viral article “Your memecoin is your slush fund”, writes: Suppose you wanted to buy a favor from Donald Trump,… Continue reading Memecoins are actually bad for bribery–debunking a common narrative

It looks like I was right , here, here, and here, about no Bitcoin reserve. Trump instead signed an executive order for the ironically-titled “working group” to investigate the creation of a crypto stockpile that will arrive at a decision within 180 days: To do this, Trump has set up a working group that will… Continue reading Trump Punts on the Bitcoin Reserve–Right Again

Taleb is having another one… Reframing Christoper's excellent study in terms of much much of life's results ARE NOT explained by IQ test results.By now the matter should be closed. https://t.co/K58wm9qVaA pic.twitter.com/ZCh5ZuKfm4 — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) January 22, 2025 I already refuted his points 2022, but to reiterate: 1. The claimed low correlation between… Continue reading More harsh truths about IQ and wealth or job success: why IQ matters

Day 2: $500 billion AI investment, Ross Ulbricht pardoned, and stocks up again–thanks to huge Oracle and Netflix earnings and optimism over Trump economy. Everything is going exactly as I said it would. Everyone getting wins, but people who wanted Bitcoin reserve, who left empty-handed despite donating the most. That is the irony of it.… Continue reading Day 2: The Dynamics of Power + Bonus Math Problem