Category: Uncategorized

1. The AI market can support many players. What is interesting about the AI/LLM boom is how it can support so many entrants and big players–like Cursor AI, Open AI, Cline, Gemini, Claude, Grok, CoPilot etc.–and each carving a niche and a high valuation. This is in contrast to social networking, in which Facebook was… Continue reading Two thoughts on AI: How it’s different from past bubbles

AI is creating so many millionaires–such as startups, investing, huge salaries, VC, consulting, etc. Even if these companies run at losses, so many people are getting rich. At the same time everyone is now wondering, “Is this the biggest bubble ever?” These bubble arguments sound reasonable and the people who make them have credentials and… Continue reading Is AI a bubble? Maybe, maybe not. Who cares.

A recurring theme is that ‘commonsense’ advice is often wrong. This is why so much advice is wrong or bad, because it’s rooted in commonsense or ‘first principle’ notions of virtue, but unsupported by empirical evidence or experience after said advice is applied and predictably fails. We live in a society, for example, where low-grade… Continue reading The pitfalls and worthlessness of commonsense advice

Bitcoin passes $122k. It would appear I was wrong about shorting Bitcoin as a hedge, but Bitcoin has a tendency of forfeiting its gains. This was seen in August 2025 when it passed $124k, only to fall to $107k weeks later. There are three factors that portend negatively to Bitcoin: 1. No progress on Bitcoin… Continue reading Bitcoin update: three negative factors, and more correct predictions

It’s interesting how ‘efficiency’ also applies to non-financial things. This can be the tendency of the lines at food stores to have the same waiting time despite differences of line length (e.g. a long line of people with small orders who are paying in cash, versus someone with a huge order that is holding everyone… Continue reading Efficient markets and the replication crisis

This tweet went hugely viral, as many can relate: Sorry but how tf do construction workers get so fat that looks like a hard job idk — Mariè (@p8stie) July 24, 2024 What is the deal with overweight blue-collar workers especially in construction, compared to sedentary office workers, who are comparably more slim? I am… Continue reading Metabolism and IQ, revisited

I saw this post going viral by Richard Hanania, “Indians Are Hated Because They Are Dark and Can’t Play Football.” I agree with Richard that this prejudice against Indians is illogical or irrational. Indian Americans have among the lowest crime and highest achievement on a per capita basis of any minority group. They are the… Continue reading Indians and Football, a response

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares debuted a few weeks ago to much initial fanfare. However, I stand by my prediction that this book will have no effect on policy or the direction of AI research. It will soon be forgotten instead of widely debated. Intellectuals and books impart… Continue reading If someone writes it, no one will read it

This is an astute observation by @JackPosobiec, that I had been waiting to respond to: For decades, the American Right has been dominated by the image of the rural conservative — the pickup-driving, small-town patriot with deep roots in red-state soil. You can't help but love this guy. And I certainly do. But there’s a… Continue reading Code-switching and the normcore-right

It’s commonly asked, “What if AI (or the tech industry in general) is a bubble?” This is less important for employees compared to investors. Investors of AI face much more downside risk compared to employees, who are paid first. With a salary, you’re still getting paid every day that you show up. The company could… Continue reading Employees/Tech Workers do Not Need to Care if AI is a Bubble