Author: smartistone

In my earlier posts I argue that AI will not lead to meaningful economic change, or even boost productivity much. It will not liberate people from work, or even lessen the workload much overall. My prediction has generally been that AI will make continued, incremental progress at the sort of things it’s already good at,… Continue reading Why AI has not lived up to the hype, and probably never will

Considerable ink has been spilled over the so-called ‘loneliness epidemic’ in recent years, with headlines like “Why have people suddenly stopped hanging out?” It’s often blamed on broad social phenomena or technology (e.g. Covid restrictions, smartphones, political division, and demographic change). But one often-overlooked aspect is the role that individuals themselves play in this. Society… Continue reading The ‘loneliness epidemic’ is also a people problem

The Nasdaq has recovered all its post-Liberation day losses, and then some. The stock market is unfazed by new tariffs or the threat of additional tariffs, such as a “100% tariff on imported chips” (the stock market actually gained on this news): Does this sound familiar? Like the hockey-stick graph of Covid cases shared in… Continue reading Why the Trump tariffs were a nothing-burger

I saw this article going viral a few days ago, “If You’re So Smart, Why Are You So Poor?” A recurring theme in these “IQ does not predict much” or “IQ is overrated” articles, such as Taleb’s viral 2019 article “IQ is a pseudoscience swindle,” is the failure of the author to take into account… Continue reading Being Smart Helps When it Comes to Success

A major part of IQ is the ability to anticipate or adapt to a changing environment. I am able to take advantage of the tendency of BTC to fall randomly or along with the stock market, but not participate on the upside. This makes shorting perfect for hedging in the event of bad news, like… Continue reading More correct predictions , and the role of IQ and forecasting

The ‘doom loop’ is composed of Epstein, Iran-Israel (and maybe Gaza) and tariffs, that alternate in the news cycle, typically one or two at a time as if in a loop. In July, Trump declared airstrikes on Iran, and Epstein was also in the news after Elon tweeted about it. Now the Iran conflict is… Continue reading The Doom Loop

An excellent tweet by Eric S. Raymond (@esrtweet) about IQ: There's more dimwitted IQ discourse on X recently, so it's time for me to bring the unpleasant news again. To be a world-class performer – the kind of person who wins a Nobel prize, or a Fields medal, or just upends the industry he works… Continue reading IQ, Modesty, Hard Work, and Luck

This is follow-up of my post “Why everyone is probably wrong about AI“, which I have split into two articles. A common prediction is that AI will make white-collar workers redundant or most of their jobs obsolete. Consequently, wealth inequality will fall. There is a sort of schadenfreude in seeing the tables turn against the… Continue reading Why AI will not free people from work or lead to social equality

Item #1: Interesting article by Sebastian Jensen, “Life doesn’t end at 22 or start at 35”. Most extremely successful entrepreneurs and game developers started when they were young and found success soon after doing so. Many even based their projects on ideas they had when they were younger. Success didn’t come fast. I spent my… Continue reading The Daily View: 7/25/2025 Bitcoin, Peak Wokeness, Epstein

I saw this going viral, “How GLP-1s Are Breaking Life Insurance.” Typically, underwriters- suspiciously sounds like undertakers-rely on a handful of key health metrics like HbA1c, cholesterol, blood pressure, and BMI to calculate your risk of dying earlier than expected (and thus costing them money). Those eagle-eyed readers among you have probably noticed something interesting… Continue reading GLP-1 Drugs are Not a Threat to Life Insurance Companies