Two weeks ago I published “More correct predictions , and the role of IQ and forecasting” , in which I predicted no Bitcoin reserve, in addition to the success of Bitcoin hedging method, by modifying it to short Bitcoin 24-7 instead of only during market hours.
Just a few hours ago, this bombshell dropped. After nearly a year of speculation, Scott Bessent said in no uncertain terms there would be no Bitcoin purchases.
The US government will not make new purchases for its strategic Bitcoin reserve, opting instead to rely on confiscated holdings, said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Fox Business ‘Mornings with Maria’ on Thursday.
So technically there is a reserve (so I was wrong in that regard), but was right that it would not be funded by purchases. The assumption was that the reserve would be funded by new purchases, instead of only seized bitcoin. A total disappointment. So I am scoring myself 1-1 on this.
Bitcoin peaked as high as $124k last night and crashed to $118k on this news. Had I not changed my method, I would have missed out on this crash. This came as crushing letdown and a surprise to many, like on Reddit. But I was prepared and saw it coming.
In July 2025, Trump unvailed a $70 billion proposal for AI investment. This was on top off a $500 billion AI infrastructure plan in Jan 2025, but nothing for Bitcoin. Trump sees AI as important for making America as competitive as possible. Correctly, he knows Bitcoin is a joke compared to AI, as I said last year and earlier this year.
I think also the public would be livid at the idea of taxpayer dollars funding something as purely speculative as Bitcoin, compared to AI, where there is at least a product or use-case. Trump can read the room and knows that AI has far broader appeal among voters than Bitcoin, whose so-called “crypto bros” are a small, noisy nuisance online with little real-world influence, compared to the widespread popularity of commercial AI tools like ChatGPT. Trump cares much more about the opinions of the likes Jensen Huang or Sam Altman, than crypto CEOs.
I was also right about inflation being subdued despite predictions of high inflation from the tariffs. CPI rose to 2.7%, a modest increase and less than expectations. The stock market surged yesterday on this news to new highs. I realized a huge gain by being long tech stocks, and then with Bitcoin crashing today, I came out well-ahead overall.