It looks like I was right again on multiple counts. First, I predicted that stocks would quickly recover from tariff-related losses and to buy the dips. Indeed, the Nasdaq has recovered all its losses and is within striking distance of a new high:
Second, I was right about inflation being muted despite the hype about the tariffs. It has now been a full month since the worst of the tariff hype, and the CPI for May 2025 came in below expectations:
But the data so far shows that isn’t happening in a significant enough way to bid up inflation overall. In categories expected to be most exposed to tariffs, like furniture, prices were down 0.8 percent in May. That is the weakest reading since December. Clothing costs fell 0.4 percent, while prices for both new and used cars also declined.
Some of this is due to Trump’s backtracking, but also because tariffs are not that big of a deal for a service-sector-dominated economy like the US. Even the liberal NYTs has to concede there has been no inflation spike. Just more reason to ignore the media. Will the likes of Richard Hanania admit he was wrong?
Third, I was right to not throw out the baby with the bathwater in my post about Elon Musk’s betrayal of Trump. I predicted that Elon’s political aspirations were likely over, but that Tesla as a brand would remain popular and Elon’s online presence/brand would also remain intact, writing “I predict Tesla will still remain highly successful as a company. Elon’s personal brand and online presence will remain strong. But his foray into politics is over.”
Trump doesn’t have any reason to accept Elon’s apology now. Elon is no longer involved, being that his time limit as a ‘special government employee’ has already run out.
I was right here too. Tesla stock has recovered all its losses from last week, indicative of the market not being concerned, as I said. In terms of social media engagement, there has been no slowdown either. Elon’s fans have not in any way deserted him, but rather engagement as measured by ‘likes’ is increasing. A weekend post about the LA riots with the caption “this is not ok” garnered over 1.3 million ‘likes’–a yearly record for his account:
This is not ok pic.twitter.com/feOtg6f6ge
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 9, 2025
The vast majority of his followers either forgave him, are indifferent, or it’s just ‘bread and circuses’ seeing two of the most powerful and richest men duke it out online. Elon has always injected himself in whatever the ‘big story’ is, this time being the LA riots. In 2018 it was the Thai Cave rescue. In 2020-2021 it was Gamestop and Covid. He pioneered and led the post-2022 woke-backlash, going so far as buying Twitter and rebranding it as “X”, and in 2024 putting his full weight behind Trump’s campaign.
In 2021, I correctly predicted and foresaw the rise of ‘big tech’ and Musk. I saw that politicians and world governments were losing legitimacy in the eyes of the public, to keep pushing the usual covid and vaccine narrative, or wokeness and DEI. In mid 2021, I said to myself, “Whatever Musk represents, this is the future.” In early 2021, with Biden winning, Trump banned from Twitter and under federal investigation, and the Jan 6th protests leading to humiliation and mass arrests–‘the right’ was at an all-time low. The common assumption was that wokeness would get worse.
But I saw how much traffic Elon’s tweets and videos were getting. Same for other tech CEOs and events at the time, like Blue Origin space launches, Apple product releases, tech demos, and so on. This was before the post-2023 AI boom, which saw the rise of Open Ai’s Sam Altman and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, for better or worse. I saw that Hollywood, academia, and the usual cultural channels were losing support and popularity with the public, who trusted Mr. Beast, Rogan, and Musk over ‘credentialed experts’. This in 2024 led to big tech doing a 180 by downsizing DEI and other programs and tentatively backing Trump.