The debate pretty much went exactly as I expected. Trump covered all the bases, such as attacking the administration (I have to periodically remind myself Biden is still technically in charge) on Afghanistan, which he called “…one of the most incompetently handled situations anybody has ever seen.” Same for immigration. Things began to go downhill regarding the ‘eating cats and dogs comment’, and I knew at that point he had lost.
I wrote yesterday:
Unlike the first debate, I predict it will be close. Expectation are high for both candidates, adding to the suspense. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where she does as poorly as Biden, given that presumably she is much better prepared and is actually playing with a full deck of cards. The polls will not change much, and will remain close until election night.
Indeed, Harris performed infinitely better compared to Biden. I think too many conservative commentators assumed it would be an easy win for Trump and failed to consider that Harris had prepped extensively and was already well-familiar with Trump’s tactics. Harris has the full backing of the entire DNC establishment, and is operating at what is her peak cognitive performance. Trump is likely somewhat on the decline, but still much sharper than Biden was.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell as the Nasdaq surged 2%. As shown below, IBIT, an ETF that tracks Bitcoin, was down .7%, but QQQ was up 2%:
The perception is that Kamala is bad for Bitcoin, but Bitcoin will fall no matter who wins. Trump has stopped talking about Bitcoin after endorsing it during a conference, and Harris will continue to put the thumbscrews of regulation to it. Rather than wasting my time with prediction markets, I make much more money with far less risk by betting against Bitcoin and betting on stocks.
As expected, there is no shortage of commentary about what Trump should do or why he lost:
This is a lose-lose for Trump. If he turns down a second debate with Harris it will make him look weak, but if he accepts he'll need to win it, and I didn't see much evidence tonight that he's capable of doing that.
His best hope now is to turn his campaign over to skilled… https://t.co/FyoV0SSwPm
— i/o (@eyeslasho) September 11, 2024
Given that the first debate led to the chain of events that resulted in a stronger replacement, and that he lost the second debate, maybe the best advice is to decline? I suspect someone could be feeding Trump bad advice, or Trump believes that the debates help him by getting his message across to undecided voters even at the cost of bad press by losing.
But it’s not like debates matter in terms of the polls despite the inordinate media coverage and commentary they engender. By that point the vast majority of voter’s minds are already decided. Even after Biden tanked his debate, his approvals ratings did not budge in the subsequent week, at around 39%. It’s worth noting that George W. Bush lost his debates against his smarter opponents, but still won.
David Frum: “He repeated crazy stories about immigrants eating cats and dogs, backward-looking, personal, emotional, defensive, and frequently incomprehensible…The debate was often a battle of eyelids: Harris’s opened wide; Trump’s squinting and tightening.” pic.twitter.com/nz6Z7mPbXe
— Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania) September 11, 2024
That this is coming from David Frum, is anyone surprised or care? Same for Tayler’s Swift’s official endorsement of Kamala; how many minds is this going to change among likely voters at this late stage of the election?
Trump still has the potential to secure a win by tipping the electoral math in his favor, like in 2016. Trump’s strength is appealing to the sort of hidden voter, analogous to the silent majority, who are invisible in the ‘sphere of discourse’–but make their presence felt come election night.