Shorting Bitcoin during market hours (as a hedge against an equities position) continues to work stupendously. This pattern takes advantage of the tendency of governments to liquidate their Bitcoin holdings during market hours, like yesterday, when government offices are open and to take advantage of liquidity (compared to in the evening, when offices are closed and less liquidity).
So by isolating this timeframe, I am able to profit from the Bitcoin short and the tendency of tech stocks to rise, whilst mitigating the risk of the long-tech position with the Bitcoin-short hedge. I wrote about this in more detail on July 8th:
Governments and hedge funds are dumping Bitcoin on weekday mornings. Government and hedge fund offices open in the morning on the East Cost during the weekdays, precisely when Bitcoin is weakest and rapidly falls. Is this coincidence? Certainty not. The German government is rapidly dumping Bitcoin, which is causing panic among investors, along with the U.S. government at the same time every morning. This is to take advantage of increased liquidity when the stock market is open on the weekdays.
Yesterday, 8/14/2024, $591 million of Bitcoin was transferred from government-controlled Silk Road wallets to Coinbase, and consequently Bitcoin plunged from $60.5k to $58k as I was short, enabling me to profit greatly. Just like the post above said would happen.
And now today Bitcoin crashed again during market hours from $59.5k to $57k, erasing its earlier gains and again netting me a large profit. So I profited twice: first from tech stocks surging (today and yesterday)–AND–then from Bitcoin falling, but using the collateral from the tech positions to fund the Bitcoin short. So my leveraged tech positions gained five percent today, but Bitcoin fell four percent, so I increased my account balance by nine percent. [If this goes over your head–good–it means you are not knowledgeable enough to trade–stick to index funds.] As indicated by the orange boxes, Bitcoin crashed during market hours today and yesterday during market hours, when I was short:
What started as a side hustle independent of blogging has morphed into a lucrative business in its own right. It shows the importance of trying things out and keeping your eyes peeled to opportunity. When I have repeatedly claimed be among the best traders and forecasters ever or highest IQ, it’s not fronting. It’s all backed by evidence and results. You have to be smart to find the connection between Silk Road, Coinbase, and workday hours (when government and hedge fund offices are open and can sell Bitcoin) as I had done.
But despite being wrong last year about Bitcoin going to to $20k (it went to $70k) I still made money with my method by isolating the timeframe and long tech, which goes to show how powerful it is. What I am basically doing is front-running institutions who are selling. In this case, the absolute price does not matter, just the delta.
What is the endgame of this? In terms of profits, 2024 is by far my biggest year, on top of 2023, which was already big. The long-term target of $20k is still intact. Typically the trend is for methods to stop working, but this has been working since late 2022 (It worked before 2022 but I was not involved.) When $20k is hit, I may book profits for good. Maybe I will start a hedge fund–I’ll call it Grey Street or something–who knows.
Or not. There is a tendency of experts to underestimate how long trends can persist–or–overestimate the tendency of things to mean-revert. Mean-reversion is not useful in the context of dynamic systems which have entered a final state, nor are historical analogues , like comparing the U.S. to Rome. A major theme of this blog is that trends last way longer than expected, whether it’s the the dominance of big tech, the imperviousness of the U.S. hegemon, or the stability of American society despite everything going wrong and societal decay. Political theatre does not change this much.
Over the past year so many people said Bitcoin would recover, and were wrong. Capital will always seek to allocate itself optimally, so Bitcoin being suboptimal means poor performance is expected for the foreseeable future. Bitcoin has entered a long-term trend of weakness from which it cannot recover, as the concept was ill-conceived in the first place. Diversification is sorta a myth; smart money does not diversify into inferior assets. This is why near-zero billionaires personally own Bitcoin, but they own real estate, intellectual property, undeveloped land, businesses, stocks, or artwork, which are better. The few billionaires who own Bitcoin turned it into a business, like the Winklevoss twins, not buying and “hodling” it at >$40k.
So the side hustle does integrate with the theme of the blog, rather than being an appendage. I am simply profiting from yet another trend that will persist. I could write a book about wokeness or the left to take advantage of the recent backlash to wokeness, but that is much more work relative to pay and already saturated, whereas trading is easier and more profitable. Also, attention spans are shot due to the rise of digital media. When you write a non-fiction book about politics, you are writing to elites as broadly defined to mean well-educated people, not the general public, who are on Netflix or YouTube instead, so money is out of the question–you are doing it for influence. The problem with political books is that the landscape changes fast, so concepts may be obsolete by the time the book is done. A good book cannot read like a series of blog posts strung together. It has to be something different.