Item #1. From Scott, “The AI Superforecasters Are Here” He writes: You, personally, should not play the prediction markets in the AI future. You’ll be competing against smarter-than-top-human superforecasters that can spend subjective weeks cogitating on every single question, and you will definitely lose. To the contrary, it would actually be easier, at least initially.… Continue reading The Daily View 7/11/2026: Superforecasters , Iran, and AI & Cheating in College
Month: July 2026
Why It Can Be True That Students Are Both Smarter and Less Prepared
I saw these stories going viral, all within the span of a few weeks: I’m a professor at Berkeley. Bring back this requirement for entry. and Students are doing worse than you think College Students Are Losing the Ability to Read There have been a lot of stories lately about the apparent lack of preparedness… Continue reading Why It Can Be True That Students Are Both Smarter and Less Prepared
The TV Addict Who Became a Macro Forecaster
Interesting post from Richard Hanania, “Sixteen Fun Facts about Me.” It’s too bad the article is paywalled after his fourth “fact,” but some parts are similar to or contrast with my own life. I don’t have much contact with my family, and haven’t maintained contact with any friends from elementary school, high school, or college.… Continue reading The TV Addict Who Became a Macro Forecaster
Why we cannot have nice things
I have been thinking why UBI and single-payer healthcare is totally unworkable in America. With fears of AI leading to mass-unemployment constantly in the news, the idea of a UBI is often touted as a solution. Democrats similarly have pushed for wealth taxes and universal healthcare, and neither have made much ground. A California wealth… Continue reading Why we cannot have nice things
Trump Profiting from Crypto Is Not Corruption
I saw this going viral, Democrats rail against corruption after Trump financial disclosure: Democrats are accusing President Trump of improperly profiting from his and his family’s cryptocurrency ventures after he reported more than $1 billion in income tied to the industry. In his annual financial disclosure released Tuesday, Trump revealed about $594 million in income… Continue reading Trump Profiting from Crypto Is Not Corruption