Month: April 2026

The big story is on the 8th of April, 2026, Iran and the US agreed to a 2 week ceasefire. How did my forecasts stack up? I was right where it mattered most: when my money was at stake. Even if you are bearish on Trump’s foreign policy and think Iran is mess or has… Continue reading Trump: diplomacy by delay

I saw this going massively viral The total number of smart people in the world has just peaked. And now it's about to crash. pic.twitter.com/rH6hqXXTZ1 — Jonatan Pallesen (@jonatanpallesen) March 19, 2026 The common theme is that America is dumbing-down. Instead, it’s more like America is becoming smarter and dumber at the same time, and… Continue reading America is becoming smarter and dumber at the same time

Iran pushes back against Trump’s deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has become the new tariffs. It’s the same pattern of empty threats. My prediction a month ago of the strait closure lasting much longer than expected, is looking especially prescient. Trump is forced between the following choices, none of which are good.… Continue reading The daily view 4/6/2026: Iran, Metabolism, Wealth & Status, Downwardly-mobile American young people

It’s not an exaggeration to say AI has taken the world by storm. Remember this? Wonder how many guys plunged into a psychotic state & left completely broken by this event. pic.twitter.com/LQ5gwNSVAk — HB (@Casagrandezz) January 31, 2021 In early 2021 Mark Zuckerberg was on top of the world. Facebook stock, before its rebranding as… Continue reading AI Changes Everything–and Nothing

When you look at tweets by Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, Chamath, etc. that are factually wrong (about things that can be easily verified online) or show a lack of self or situational awareness, it makes you wonder how it’s possible for people who are so successful to be so consistently wrong all the time. For… Continue reading Why successful people often have bad opinions online