No one has any power

I saw this tweet going viral

This is what I mean when I say, “People who make a living writing about politics, but don’t actually know how politics works.” This should not be news to anyone. The GOP has always emphasized foreign policy and business interests over ‘domestic or household-level economic issues’, such as housing affordability or healthcare. Here is what I wrote a few weeks ago, from the post, “Don’t expect Trump to do anything about healthcare costs, inflation, or student loan debt”:

Maybe in an ideal world there would not be this compromise or having to choose the ‘less bad’ option, but basically, the Democrats have always been the party of ‘household economic issues’, social justice notwithstanding, versus the Republicans’ focus more on foreign policy and firm/business-focused economic policy.

What is needed is a third option: a greater focus on domestic domestic issues, less focus on foreign policy, and rejecting wokeness.

All power is being outsourced or funneled to the tech sector and the judiciary. Those are the two pillars of power. The tech sector is the defacto 4th branch of government now. Judges can override laws and the will of the people. Tech companies play an invaluable role economically, and their products affect millions, even billions of people worldwide, who use their services. For example, an Amazon data center outage is huge news than has ripple effects on the economy due to widespread downtime. District attorneys and prosecutors have arguably more absolute power than any other position, by decree revoking anyone’s freedom.

From the post “Some thoughts on Trump’s second term: Tech’s ascent”:

Hence the judicial branch is much more important or consequential given the void of power in the other two. Courts wield enormous power, whether it’s indicting individuals, investigating companies for anticompetitive practices, or challenging or even overturning laws. Prosecutors have the sole discretion or authority by decree to take away anyone’s freedom; not even four-star generals or the POTUS has that power. (Of course, police can make arrests, but the DA can refuse to press charges).

There are instead effectively two pillars of power: the judiciary and big tech companies. This was evidenced last week when Alphabet, the parent company of Google, prevailed over a 2020 antitrust case brought by the DOJ that threatened to be break up the tech giant, sending its stock up 9%.

Conversely, politicians have little direct power in the US, save for Trump’s executive orders. I predicted all of this years ago. Anyone who was paying attention could have seen this coming. I did and invested in tech stocks accordingly. From the post, “The continued rise of billionaires, and the decline of institutions”:

You’d have to go as far back to Obamacare the last time Congress passed some sort of sweeping social policy. Unlike 911, which saw the creation of multiple federal agencies and a massive homeland security outlay that persists to this day, the national response to Covid was limited to the vaccines and stimulus spending, and it was left up to the states to decide how few or many restrictions to enact, whereas the post-911 restrictions were federally mandated (e.g. the Homeland Security Act of 2002).

Another tweet:

The implicit purpose of Congress is to give the President the authorization to act during crisis, like 9/11, 2008 or Covid, but otherwise doesn’t do much. The private sector is much more efficient and dynamic, compared to sclerotic Congress. This is the way it’s supposed to be, and always has been. If you want excitement or action, go into business; don’t follow politics. Or Middle East or Eastern-European politics. That tends To be more exciting than US politics.

The common complaint is that Trump is deaf or oblivious to rising costs, like housing affordability or healthcare. To ‘make costs/prices go down’ broadly implies a decline of the CPI, which would signify a recession. Raising taxes a lot or interest rates could achieve this, but it would come at the cost of tanking the economy and Trump’s successor, assuming it passes Congress. Hence, it’s a non-starter. Given what we know about Trump, there is no way he would do this. It would be political suicide.

Inflation will get worse, and there isn’t anything anyone can about it without creating a worse situation; e.g. a recession. That is the reality of the situation. At best, Trump can focus on a specific type of inflation, such as lowering the cost of certain prescription drugs. Or maybe certain imports. Has Trump ever expressed much concern about inflation? Only now has he started talking about it because it is hard to ignore.

Another tweet:

This is a common sentiment, which is why his tweet went viral, as so many can relate. You get the sense these powerful, rich people are punching air. Elon owns Twitter, yet his power outside of the site is limited, and no one takes him seriously when it comes to politics or policy. Trump can only ‘rant and rave’, similar to his first term. True, tech CEOs and politicians have a lot of influence, but this is distinct from power.

From the post, “‘Thought leader’ is just another form of elite status”, this void of power has been filled by a miscellany of pundits and academics who wield considerable influence despite not being wealthy or holding any official title. They don’t run large companies. They aren’t elected or appointed to office or any other position, yet affect the course of policy and discourse in America in ways no one else does.

None of these things is going to get better. Homes will remain unaffordable in desirable areas. Healthcare will keep being expensive. No amount of blaming illegals or Obama will change this, as healthcare being expensive long predates this. Will AI destroy all the jobs? Unlikely, but there are no shortage of opinions about it. The haves will keep having, and the have-nots will keep not-having. If Trump and the rest of the most powerful and richest people in the world cannot change anything, who can or will?

Just as there exists the steady-state universe, the same is seen politically or the state of society, where there is a lot of bluster, but the needle doesn’t much. To butcher that famous Rumsfeld quote, we’re stuck with the society we have, not the society we want.