The news cycle is moving so fast. Just 2 days ago, the big story was riots and the plane crash. Now it’s Israel’s airstrikes on Iran. This is being framed as Israel thwarting Trump’s attempts at peace talks or even as the prelude to world war.
But strategic airstrikes of military or nuclear targets is nothing new and will not lead to world war. Such airstrikes are a common way of countries flexing foreign policy muscle, without escalating to war. This was commonplace during the 90s and 2000s. This is as close to peace as we’re going to see. I would say airstrikes are preferable to a full-on invasion.
It’s naive to think Trump can broker peace. Israel knows perfectly well it can flagrantly defy Trump and still get the unconditional backing of the US, so why would it comply with Trump’s directive? Iran will continue to expand nuclear capabilities regardless of any peace deal, too.
Iran has responded with a predictably pathetic drone strike. I was right last year about the whole thing blowing over. For this reason, similar to last year when this exact thing happened, I predict there will be minimal to no escalation from either side. As I wrote earlier:
Regarding Iran and Israel, like in April 2024, I am not expecting much to happen, in which I was also correct then too; a lot of bluster and limited strikes by both parties. There will be no escalation to world war or anything like that. The international community’s opinion is irrelevant in the matter as long as Israel has the full and unconditional backing of the US.
and before:
Buy the dip on any stock market weakness on Monday. That is what I will be doing. There will be no World War 3 or other escalation, and the conflict will remain contained between Iran and Israel (with the US providing assistance if necessary or requested, similar to with Ukraine, but no boots on the ground). Although the involvement of Syria, which is an ally of Iran, is still on the table.
Any selloff in the market will be brief and a good buying opportunity. The ‘nothing ever happens’ meme is still correct that if things do happen, they are short-lived and contained.