I saw this article going viral a few days ago Being fat is a trap. It generated 350 comments in under a day, which is a lot. Given that 75% of Americans are obese or overweight, it’s understandable that there is considerable interest in this topic.
The funny thing about dieting advice is it’s always framed as commonsense or self-evident, yet the failure rate is still anywhere from 90-100% (depending on the source you consult). Making matters worse, for practical reasons, such studies only track their subjects for only a couple years, and the failure rate is still very high. It’s reasonable to assume over a long enough timeline the success rate converges to zero. Consequently, the dieter is often blamed for failing to apply this ‘commonsense’ advice.
The high failure rate of dieting is one of the most reproducible findings in human biology. Failure includes regaining all or most of the weight or not losing enough (or even any). There just isn’t much ambiguity or room for interpretation here. But people always try to split hairs on this, such as arguing “it depends on the definition of failure,” yet uncritically accept “big 5” personality traits or other behavioral research as ‘true’ despite the inherent subjectiveness of measuring something like personality compared to the number on a scale.
Moreover, there is no evidence to suggest the body ever resists trying to regain the weight even many years of successful weight loss. Studies show that users of GLP-1 drugs still regain three years or longer if the drugs are discontinued, suggesting the body never habituates a new lower set point, but keeps fighting to the bitter end to regain the weight. Despite an abundance of fitness and health advice online, as well as a plethora of fitness apps and calorie-counting apps, there is no evidence to suggest people are more successful at dieting now compared to in the past, even with all this extra knowledge and tracking. Record-high obesity rates are indicative of this.
There are some myths or misconceptions about obesity and weight loss I have observed in the comments.
First, that “Obese people are eating huge amounts of food.” Maybe some are, but this is hardly indicative of all obese people, or even most of them. As I discuss earlier, a famous ’92 study which tracked obese dieters who were unable to lose weight found they were eating only 2081 kcal/day.
From the study:
The energy intake reported by the subjects in group 1 during the 14-day study period was 1028±148 kcal per day, whereas their actual energy intake was 2081±522 kcal per day. Thus, these subjects significantly (P<0.05) underreported their energy intake by a group mean of 1053 kcal per day, or a mean for individual subjects of 47±16 percent (Fig. 2). These subjects underreported their energy intake even more if their total energy expenditure (2468 kcal per day) represents the long-term energy intake required to maintain a stable weight.
Note: the study tracked participants with BMIs in the 30s, so the “2468 kcal per day” is just to remain weight-stable at an obese BMI. This was in laboratory conditions, with the food intake closely measured, so no cheating. For the group that had stalled, 2,000-2,400 kcal/day is hardly “lots of food”, but within the DFA ‘recommended guidelines‘. Yet the participants in both groups of the study were still obese and had stalled. This does not leave much room to cut calories if someone is 50-100+ pounds overweight yet needs to get to 2,400 or fewer calories just to begin to actually start losing weight. It’s little wonder the failure rate of dieting is so high when there isn’t much margin of error.
A second misconception is that people need to eat ‘healthy, whole foods’. However, the failure rate of dieting is very high, even when people apply this advice. In other words, people are trying to eat healthy and still fail. Or fail even when they do, owing to ‘too many calories’. ‘Eating healthy’ or ‘heathy calories’ does not absolve one from the immutable laws of CICO. Any surplus energy is stored as fat regardless of the food source.
Additionally, heathy food can be extremely calorie dense. Some may be surprised to learn avocados, cheese, nuts, butters, and beef/steak has a higher calorie density than Skittles due to the high fat content in the former (fat has 2.25x the caloric density per gram compared to carbs). Milk has a higher calorie density than soda (176 vs 200 vs 240 calories per pint for Coca-Cola, 1% fat milk, and whole milk respectively). Avocado and milk consumption has surged in recent years, tracking rising rates of obesity overall, showing that healthy eating is not necessarily the answer. In the end, ‘it’s the calories, stupid’.
There is no evidence either to suggest healthy food or the macro composition makes a difference in so as far as satiety or fullness are concerned. On Reddit, I have observed participants on ‘keto/carnivore subs’ are no more successful at weight loss compared to participants in vegetarian or plant-based diet communities. Peanuts, oils, hummus, nut butters, and granolas are plant-based yet very calorie dense. Or the advice is contradictory, such as in keto to “eat more fat” for fullness, or to ‘choose leaner cuts’ when the inevitable weight loss stall occurs. The common thread is that dieting is hard and nothing works that well, which is borne out by the data.
Finally, blaming food advertising and marketing:
There is a common belief that if people were better informed of healthier choices, or if junk food companies were prohibited or otherwise restricted from advertising, that people would choose healthier foods and lower obesity rates would follow. First, as discussed above, calorie-dense ‘healthy’ foods are not necessarily conducive to thinness. Second, advertising only plays a small role in the choices people make or how people are informed. For example, word of mouth or social media entirely bypasses the usual advertising channels. An obvious example is Tesla, which despite spending no money on advertising, has surpassed established car brands that advertise extensively. Fair Life milk is also popular on social media despite not advertising. Moreover, if people are already aware junk food exists, they will still seek it out. It’s not like people need ads to be reminded that McDonald’s or Coca-Cola exists. And lastly, people will still make choices against their ‘best interests’, assuming governments should be entrusted to make this determination, even with complete information. Many people knowingly eat junk food right now despite also being abundantly aware of an obesity epidemic.
In summary, commonsense advice just does not stand much of a chance against the unyielding biology of weight gain or the difficulty of applying said advice. This is why GLP-1 drugs, despite not curing obesity, are our best shot yet at containing the problem. I have noticed fewer of these moralizing “taking the easy way out” arguments now compared to a couple years ago, as more people see the effectiveness of these drugs. There is always skepticism to new technologies, but I say it’s time to give the commonsense advice a break given that the successes are anything but common.